What is wrong with reclaim?

[Kenji1134]

This looks like a job for Excel!!!

Here's an experiment for you guys.
Simulate 25,000 random rolls from 0 to 1. If it is less than or equal to 90, call it a success.
Sum up the results of these rolls in sets of 10, and use the frequency function to count how often each set of 10 has a given number of successes.

Here are my general results for sample sizes of 10.
10/10 = 36%
9/10 = 38%
8/10 = 19%
7/10 = 6%
6/10 = 1%
5/10 = 0.04%
Less than 5/10 didnt happen.

Now if we change the sample size from 10 to 25, the results are somewhat different.
25/25 = 8.1%
24/25 = 19.4%
23/25 = 25.4%
22/25 = 22.5%
21/25 = 14.3%
20/25 = 7%
19/25 = 2.5%
18/25 = 0.8%
Under 18/25 did not happen.

So with a smaller sample size, the maximum failure rate was 6/10, or 40% failures in a sample set.
With the larger size, the max failure rate went down to 18/25 or 28% failures in a set.

Ah statistics. Depending on how you present the data, even for a "properly random" source such as Excel, you can see how one person can claim that out of 3 attempts everything failed so they quit. Whereas someone else who (for some unknown reason) does high risk crafting nonstop and does some 100 samples per day would say that the rate is fine. A couple fail here and there but mostly fine.