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  1. #1
    Player
    h0tNstilettos's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    565
    Character
    Samira Starlightzz
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Red Mage Lv 70

    How is sand/oil roll winners determined in Syrcus Tower?

    I use to think that which party members get sands/oils was random. But for the past 3 or 4 weeks I started playing Syrcus Tower again after being away from it since back when they changed it to drop more sands and oils,which I think was when they added unidentified tomes to it, or whichever one did not drop there originally. I was happy that it now dropped even more sands and oils, including some on the boss before last. Well for the past 4 weeks I have been doing Syrcus Tower countless times and I have yet to get a single sand or oil. I kept telling myself it was just bad luck or some strange coincidence, but I am now realizing it is not. There is no way that out of anywhere from 7 to 9 sand/oil drops total between 2nd to last boss and last boss that I have yet to get a single one. Back when it dropped far fewer I got 1 at least every other run or so, but now there's like 3 times as many that drop and I'm not getting anything.

    I'm convinced that it prioritizes those with a lower iLv because on the run I just did, I payed attention to this and noticed most of them went to the 2 lowest geared members in the group. Can anyone confirm this? That or there's something else going on. I mean Syrcus Tower literally rains sands and oils, yet countless runs over a 4 week period and I get nothing. It's killing my urge to play the game when I cannot upgrade my i100 accessories, and need a sand for weapon since I put Zeta on hold since there is no way that would be done by Heavensward and I need better weapon to clear T9-T13 before Heavensward. My iLv is 111. Most of my armor is i130 or i120, while my accessories are mostly i100 with 1 or 2 i110, and weapon i100. Should I just not bother and just do T7?
    (0)

  2. #2
    Player
    Nektulos-Tuor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    2,389
    Character
    Thanatos Ravensweald
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Arcanist Lv 70
    Its RNG.

    Took a friend (new player) through it 11 times. Never got drops. Lowest ilevel in the raid.
    (10)

  3. #3
    Player
    Felis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    12,287
    Character
    Skadi Felis
    World
    Ragnarok
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 70
    Because everyone would roll Need on Oil/Sand, whoever roll the highest number in your group get it
    (0)

  4. #4
    Player
    Purrfectstorm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    668
    Character
    Purrfect Storm
    World
    Cactuar
    Main Class
    Dragoon Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by h0tNstilettos View Post
    There is no way that out of anywhere from 7 to 9 sand/oil drops total between 2nd to last boss and last boss that I have yet to get a single one.
    If every person lots, then you only have a 1/8 chance of winning. Not winning out of 9 times is not that big of an outlier.

    (7/8)^9 = 30%

    There have been studies that prove humans are very, very bad at assessing probability. This is a good example of that; what seems like an extremely low probability event to you actually happens to almost 1/3 of the people who run ST.
    (12)

  5. #5
    Player
    kyuven's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Ul'Dah
    Posts
    2,130
    Character
    Chen Kotomi
    World
    Adamantoise
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Purrfectstorm View Post
    There have been studies that prove humans are very, very bad at assessing probability.
    MMOs would be the an interesting case study for this.
    "I didn't get this thing with a 20% drop rate in 50 runs (which turns out to be less than 20) therefore it's broken!"
    (0)

  6. #6
    Player Eidolon's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    1,373
    Character
    Muhau Nbolo
    World
    Mateus
    Main Class
    Warrior Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by kyuven View Post
    MMOs would be the an interesting case study for this.
    "I didn\\'t get this thing with a 20% drop rate in 50 runs (which turns out to be less than 20) therefore it\\'s broken!"
    I hope you meant 20 runs, and not 'less than 20%' xD I was a little confused by the post until I thought you probably meant they were overrexaggerating how many runs they had.

    Even still, 0/20 on 20% sucks. In a perfect world they'd be 4/20.
    (0)

  7. #7
    Player
    kyuven's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Ul'Dah
    Posts
    2,130
    Character
    Chen Kotomi
    World
    Adamantoise
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Eidolon View Post
    I hope you meant 20 runs, and not 'less than 20%' xD I was a little confused by the post until I thought you probably meant they were overrexaggerating how many runs they had.

    Even still, 0/20 on 20% sucks. In a perfect world they'd be 4/20.
    yes, I meant less than 20 runs.
    It does suck, but this world is imperfect and math will never be exact (more precisely, probability will never be exact). There will always be that guy who got his atmas pre-droprate increase in one day alongside the guy who spent 2 weeks (doing 2 fates a day then coming to the forums and complaining about doing "hundreds" of fates) and only having 3, post droprate increase.
    (0)
    Last edited by kyuven; 04-26-2015 at 06:07 PM.

  8. #8
    Player
    Ren_Taka's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    15
    Character
    Zazie Rainyday
    World
    Jenova
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 60
    From my experience, it prioritizes giving them to the most useless person in each run. Try intentionally dying at every boss. That's what broke my dozen run streak of winning nothing.
    (9)

  9. #9
    Player
    Evergrey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    2,021
    Character
    Rexipher Evergrey
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Dark Knight Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Ren_Taka View Post
    From my experience, it prioritizes giving them to the most useless person in each run. Try intentionally dying at every boss. That's what broke my dozen run streak of winning nothing.
    That must just have been coincidences... If you were a Lala I could understand, as the RNG god would see it as a Lala sacrifice. And we all know that the RNG god want Lala's.
    (0)

  10. #10
    Player
    CGMidlander's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    1,819
    Character
    Height Error
    World
    Jenova
    Main Class
    Samurai Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Ren_Taka View Post
    From my experience, it prioritizes giving them to the most useless person in each run. Try intentionally dying at every boss. That's what broke my dozen run streak of winning nothing.
    That there is called confirmation bias.
    (1)

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