How is sand/oil roll winners determined in Syrcus Tower?

[h0tNstilettos]

I use to think that which party members get sands/oils was random. But for the past 3 or 4 weeks I started playing Syrcus Tower again after being away from it since back when they changed it to drop more sands and oils,which I think was when they added unidentified tomes to it, or whichever one did not drop there originally. I was happy that it now dropped even more sands and oils, including some on the boss before last. Well for the past 4 weeks I have been doing Syrcus Tower countless times and I have yet to get a single sand or oil. I kept telling myself it was just bad luck or some strange coincidence, but I am now realizing it is not. There is no way that out of anywhere from 7 to 9 sand/oil drops total between 2nd to last boss and last boss that I have yet to get a single one. Back when it dropped far fewer I got 1 at least every other run or so, but now there's like 3 times as many that drop and I'm not getting anything.

I'm convinced that it prioritizes those with a lower iLv because on the run I just did, I payed attention to this and noticed most of them went to the 2 lowest geared members in the group. Can anyone confirm this? That or there's something else going on. I mean Syrcus Tower literally rains sands and oils, yet countless runs over a 4 week period and I get nothing. It's killing my urge to play the game when I cannot upgrade my i100 accessories, and need a sand for weapon since I put Zeta on hold since there is no way that would be done by Heavensward and I need better weapon to clear T9-T13 before Heavensward. My iLv is 111. Most of my armor is i130 or i120, while my accessories are mostly i100 with 1 or 2 i110, and weapon i100. Should I just not bother and just do T7?

[Nektulos-Tuor]

Its RNG.

Took a friend (new player) through it 11 times. Never got drops. Lowest ilevel in the raid.

[Felis]

Because everyone would roll Need on Oil/Sand, whoever roll the highest number in your group get it

[Purrfectstorm]

There is no way that out of anywhere from 7 to 9 sand/oil drops total between 2nd to last boss and last boss that I have yet to get a single one.

If every person lots, then you only have a 1/8 chance of winning. Not winning out of 9 times is not that big of an outlier.

(7/8)^9 = 30%

There have been studies that prove humans are very, very bad at assessing probability. This is a good example of that; what seems like an extremely low probability event to you actually happens to almost 1/3 of the people who run ST.

[kyuven]

There have been studies that prove humans are very, very bad at assessing probability.

MMOs would be the an interesting case study for this.
"I didn't get this thing with a 20% drop rate in 50 runs (which turns out to be less than 20) therefore it's broken!"

[Eidolon]

MMOs would be the an interesting case study for this.
"I didn\\'t get this thing with a 20% drop rate in 50 runs (which turns out to be less than 20) therefore it\\'s broken!"

I hope you meant 20 runs, and not 'less than 20%' xD I was a little confused by the post until I thought you probably meant they were overrexaggerating how many runs they had.

Even still, 0/20 on 20% sucks. In a perfect world they'd be 4/20.

[kyuven]

I hope you meant 20 runs, and not 'less than 20%' xD I was a little confused by the post until I thought you probably meant they were overrexaggerating how many runs they had.

Even still, 0/20 on 20% sucks. In a perfect world they'd be 4/20.

yes, I meant less than 20 runs.
It does suck, but this world is imperfect and math will never be exact (more precisely, probability will never be exact). There will always be that guy who got his atmas pre-droprate increase in one day alongside the guy who spent 2 weeks (doing 2 fates a day then coming to the forums and complaining about doing "hundreds" of fates) and only having 3, post droprate increase.

[Ren_Taka]

From my experience, it prioritizes giving them to the most useless person in each run. Try intentionally dying at every boss. That's what broke my dozen run streak of winning nothing.

[Evergrey]

From my experience, it prioritizes giving them to the most useless person in each run. Try intentionally dying at every boss. That's what broke my dozen run streak of winning nothing.

That must just have been coincidences... If you were a Lala I could understand, as the RNG god would see it as a Lala sacrifice. And we all know that the RNG god want Lala's.

[CGMidlander]

From my experience, it prioritizes giving them to the most useless person in each run. Try intentionally dying at every boss. That's what broke my dozen run streak of winning nothing.

That there is called confirmation bias.