About Mini-Cactpot Odds

[Niwashi]

... then getting 6 has the same odds as getting 24. and there is only one combination for those numbers and that is 1,2,3 and 7,8,9. but yet the payout greatly varies between the two results. same odds / different payouts. it just doesn't make any sense to me.

If you could see either all the numbers or none of them when you made your choice, then it wouldn't make sense. As it is, you're choosing between possibilities. Do you go for the line that has the most chances to win a significant amount or the line that has one possible chance to win the biggest amount?

i would say there is some sort of hidden factor that scrambles these odds. but i have not experienced anything of the like.

If you haven't experienced it, why would you think there's some other hidden factor? I'm pretty sure it's just nine digits randomly scattered across a card, with each combination just as likely as any other. Which ones you get is luck, and which of those you choose is a combination of luck and the probability deductions you can make from limited information.

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

if one combination is just as likely to occur as another combination but yet has a different payout... well that just doesn't make sense. too bad REAL lottery tickets aren't like this. i would be filthy stinking rich. anyhow, is whatever. i am not complaining about. it is just a game, and having it like this ensures people can always win something with a relatively high rate. it just isn't very logical for a lottery system.

[Niwashi]

It wouldn't be logical for a regular lottery system where what you get is pure luck. This isn't one. Here we get to reveal portions of the card and then choose, so we're working with probabilities. Some people will choose to go with the line that has high numbers, as that gives the greatest chance to get a return in the thousands. Some will go with the line that has low numbers if that has a chance of giving the 10,000 prize. The difference lets you choose between higher payout in one case or higher success chance in the other. While it's true that a sum of 24 is no more likely than 6, that's countered by the fact that 24 isn't the only good result you can get from high numbers.

[Gillionaire]

If you haven't experienced it, why would you think there's some other hidden factor? I'm pretty sure it's just nine digits randomly scattered across a card, with each combination just as likely as any other. Which ones you get is luck, and which of those you choose is a combination of luck and the probability deductions you can make from limited information.

Because each mini cactpot card has a number on the top right. I believe there are 9! possibilities for a 3x3 grid and there's no way that SE put in that many variations (~330k iirc) of the different mini cactpot cards. The numbers only seem to be 3 digits, so there probably a few hundred "random" cards it chooses from.. Even if there is an equal chance of pulling one card over another, there's no telling what those few hundred cards look like in terms of payout distribution

[Niwashi]

Because each mini cactpot card has a number on the top right. I believe there are 9! possibilities for a 3x3 grid and there's no way that SE put in that many variations (~330k iirc) of the different mini cactpot cards. The numbers only seem to be 3 digits, so there probably a few hundred "random" cards it chooses from.. Even if there is an equal chance of pulling one card over another, there's no telling what those few hundred cards look like in terms of payout distribution

It would be ridiculously inefficient to waste that much data on storing hundreds of card possibilities (not to mention all the effort to come up with them in the first place) when all they need is a single simple rule about how cards are put together in order to have all 9! possibilities. I just can't see them putting that much extra effort into making it bad when the better version is far far easier.

So while I'm not sure what if anything that number in the corner is, I'm pretty sure it's not an identifier of which card we got. (Not to mention the fact that if the system actually had identifiers like that of which card is which, it's certainly not something they'd show us in advance. It would pretty well wipe out the whole process of displaying a few numbers and choosing a line from that.)

[SpiritMuse]

Because each mini cactpot card has a number on the top right. I believe there are 9! possibilities for a 3x3 grid and there's no way that SE put in that many variations (~330k iirc) of the different mini cactpot cards. The numbers only seem to be 3 digits, so there probably a few hundred "random" cards it chooses from.. Even if there is an equal chance of pulling one card over another, there's no telling what those few hundred cards look like in terms of payout distribution

Isn't that just the number of the current Mini Cactpot drawing?

[Sida]

Yes, as the previous poster said. It's round number that increases daily. Skip a round and it's increased by two. That is, it indicates the current day/round played.

[JayCommon]

snip

I'm pretty sure you did this correctly, but it only solidifes the question OP began with: it is the exact same percentage for a 6 as a 24, so what constitutes there being a different payout? Maybe there is a hidden factor built into the algorithm that, regardless of your graph, will offer a 6 less than a 24 just by bias input into the system? I'm not sure, all I know is I have seen, hit and won 10k 10 times since it has came out and I've only seen 24 happen 3 times. I missed 1 of them trying to bait a 6

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

I'm pretty sure you did this correctly, but it only solidifes the question OP began with: it is the exact same percentage for a 6 as a 24, so what constitutes there being a different payout? Maybe there is a hidden factor built into the algorithm that, regardless of your graph, will offer a 6 less than a 24 just by bias input into the system? I'm not sure, all I know is I have seen, hit and won 10k 10 times since it has came out and I've only seen 24 happen 3 times. I missed 1 of them trying to bait a 6

well like i previously mentioned, it does help to increase the players average payout. it is just like Niwashi said at post #13.

opening this topic has really helped me see this from a new perspective. however, i don't think every prize should be MGP. sure it is nice to have the higher average payout, but it is also supposed to have risk involved. and the risk of getting a payout lower then 1k... or heck, even the risk of getting a payout lower then 100MGP (the card costs 100MGP) is pretty darn low.

i just think the high average payout isn't the kind of risk you would expect from gambling. i think at the very least they could make some number(s) not award any MGP at all. now don't get me wrong... i certainly do enjoy earning that MGP. :P but i also think there should be a little more risk involved. or maybe more variety in prizes.

[StouterTaru]

Odds that you will have a possibility of 6 on your card is about 9.5%
Odds for a 24 are the same

Just make sure you pick so that there is only one selection that can have 6 seeing what you uncovered. If what you uncovered shows no chance at a 6, shoot for something else.