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  1. #1
    Player
    Jambalaya's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    10
    Character
    Lumina Aeris
    World
    Gilgamesh
    Main Class
    Arcanist Lv 60
    Someone with more time could explain this better than I, but certain totals have lower or higher probability of happening, it's not a matter of odds of sequence such as 1,2,3 or 7,8,9. For sequence, all combinations have equal odds of appearing (1,2,4 has the same odds as 1,2,5 and 1,3,7, etc.)

    However sums don't have the same odds. There are 84 sum possibilities.

    I made a quick excel on the odds of each, hopefully this pastes well:

    Outcome | Number of times | Odds of Outcome
    6 1 1.1905%
    7 1 1.1905%
    8 2 2.3810%
    9 3 3.5714%
    10 4 4.7619%
    11 5 5.9524%
    12 7 8.3333%
    13 7 8.3333%
    14 8 9.5238%
    15 8 9.5238%
    16 8 9.5238%
    17 7 8.3333%
    18 7 8.3333%
    19 5 5.9524%
    20 4 4.7619%
    21 3 3.5714%
    22 2 2.3810%
    23 1 1.1905%
    24 1 1.1905%


    Also note that in a 3x3 grid, you get 7 of these rolls, some of them exclude the others as each value can only appear once. That would also affect these possibilities, but I'm too lazy to factor them in. This gives a good overview though.
    (1)
    Last edited by Jambalaya; 04-03-2015 at 05:59 AM.

  2. #2
    Player JayCommon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    963
    Character
    Indaki Sativa
    World
    Gilgamesh
    Main Class
    Dark Knight Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Jambalaya View Post
    snip
    I'm pretty sure you did this correctly, but it only solidifes the question OP began with: it is the exact same percentage for a 6 as a 24, so what constitutes there being a different payout? Maybe there is a hidden factor built into the algorithm that, regardless of your graph, will offer a 6 less than a 24 just by bias input into the system? I'm not sure, all I know is I have seen, hit and won 10k 10 times since it has came out and I've only seen 24 happen 3 times. I missed 1 of them trying to bait a 6
    (0)

  3. #3
    Player BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    978
    Character
    Motoko Kusanagi
    World
    Exodus
    Main Class
    White Mage Lv 71
    Quote Originally Posted by JayCommon View Post
    I'm pretty sure you did this correctly, but it only solidifes the question OP began with: it is the exact same percentage for a 6 as a 24, so what constitutes there being a different payout? Maybe there is a hidden factor built into the algorithm that, regardless of your graph, will offer a 6 less than a 24 just by bias input into the system? I'm not sure, all I know is I have seen, hit and won 10k 10 times since it has came out and I've only seen 24 happen 3 times. I missed 1 of them trying to bait a 6

    well like i previously mentioned, it does help to increase the players average payout. it is just like Niwashi said at post #13.

    opening this topic has really helped me see this from a new perspective. however, i don't think every prize should be MGP. sure it is nice to have the higher average payout, but it is also supposed to have risk involved. and the risk of getting a payout lower then 1k... or heck, even the risk of getting a payout lower then 100MGP (the card costs 100MGP) is pretty darn low.

    i just think the high average payout isn't the kind of risk you would expect from gambling. i think at the very least they could make some number(s) not award any MGP at all. now don't get me wrong... i certainly do enjoy earning that MGP. :P but i also think there should be a little more risk involved. or maybe more variety in prizes.
    (0)
    Last edited by BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY; 04-14-2015 at 04:21 AM.