About Mini-Cactpot Odds

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

hello. does it seem the odds to hit 7,8,9 and 1,2,3 are the same? they seem the same to me. i've hit both an equal amount of times now. so i ask... why give one more a reward then the other?

in fact... i fail to understand the entire system for this. for getting anything like 1,2,3 has the same odds as even 4,5,6... or practically anything else.



am i missing something here? i sure hope so! like i would assume there is some kind of scramble system that actually offsets the odds between getting something 1,2,3 and 7,8,9... but it just doesn't seem that way to me. :/

[Jambalaya]

Someone with more time could explain this better than I, but certain totals have lower or higher probability of happening, it's not a matter of odds of sequence such as 1,2,3 or 7,8,9. For sequence, all combinations have equal odds of appearing (1,2,4 has the same odds as 1,2,5 and 1,3,7, etc.)

However sums don't have the same odds. There are 84 sum possibilities.

I made a quick excel on the odds of each, hopefully this pastes well:

Outcome | Number of times | Odds of Outcome
6 1 1.1905%
7 1 1.1905%
8 2 2.3810%
9 3 3.5714%
10 4 4.7619%
11 5 5.9524%
12 7 8.3333%
13 7 8.3333%
14 8 9.5238%
15 8 9.5238%
16 8 9.5238%
17 7 8.3333%
18 7 8.3333%
19 5 5.9524%
20 4 4.7619%
21 3 3.5714%
22 2 2.3810%
23 1 1.1905%
24 1 1.1905%


Also note that in a 3x3 grid, you get 7 of these rolls, some of them exclude the others as each value can only appear once. That would also affect these possibilities, but I'm too lazy to factor them in. This gives a good overview though.

[JayCommon]

snip

I'm pretty sure you did this correctly, but it only solidifes the question OP began with: it is the exact same percentage for a 6 as a 24, so what constitutes there being a different payout? Maybe there is a hidden factor built into the algorithm that, regardless of your graph, will offer a 6 less than a 24 just by bias input into the system? I'm not sure, all I know is I have seen, hit and won 10k 10 times since it has came out and I've only seen 24 happen 3 times. I missed 1 of them trying to bait a 6

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

I'm pretty sure you did this correctly, but it only solidifes the question OP began with: it is the exact same percentage for a 6 as a 24, so what constitutes there being a different payout? Maybe there is a hidden factor built into the algorithm that, regardless of your graph, will offer a 6 less than a 24 just by bias input into the system? I'm not sure, all I know is I have seen, hit and won 10k 10 times since it has came out and I've only seen 24 happen 3 times. I missed 1 of them trying to bait a 6

well like i previously mentioned, it does help to increase the players average payout. it is just like Niwashi said at post #13.

opening this topic has really helped me see this from a new perspective. however, i don't think every prize should be MGP. sure it is nice to have the higher average payout, but it is also supposed to have risk involved. and the risk of getting a payout lower then 1k... or heck, even the risk of getting a payout lower then 100MGP (the card costs 100MGP) is pretty darn low.

i just think the high average payout isn't the kind of risk you would expect from gambling. i think at the very least they could make some number(s) not award any MGP at all. now don't get me wrong... i certainly do enjoy earning that MGP. :P but i also think there should be a little more risk involved. or maybe more variety in prizes.

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

right. but once you learn the system it is fairly easy to almost always make 1k+ MGP on the mini-cactpot. there really doesn't seem to be much a gambling aspect to it. then getting 6 has the same odds as getting 24. and there is only one combination for those numbers and that is 1,2,3 and 7,8,9. but yet the payout greatly varies between the two results. same odds / different payouts. it just doesn't make any sense to me.

i would say there is some sort of hidden factor that scrambles these odds. but i have not experienced anything of the like. it is just like you said, getting any combination has the same odds as any other combination. while getting a specific sum total has different odds. (even that is wrong when we talk about something like getting 6 or 24.)

[Eye_Gore]

right. but once you learn the system it is fairly easy to almost always make 1k+ MGP on the mini-cactpot.

Don't know about that. I have played it everyday since it came out. With only a handful of times having max payout over 1k. Once at over 3k, and I have yet to have one hit 10k.

[RobinRethiel]

right. but once you learn the system it is fairly easy to almost always make 1k+ MGP on the mini-cactpot. there really doesn't seem to be much a gambling aspect to it. then getting 6 has the same odds as getting 24. and there is only one combination for those numbers and that is 1,2,3 and 7,8,9. but yet the payout greatly varies between the two results. same odds / different payouts. it just doesn't make any sense to me.

i would say there is some sort of hidden factor that scrambles these odds. but i have not experienced anything of the like. it is just like you said, getting any combination has the same odds as any other combination. while getting a specific sum total has different odds. (even that is wrong when we talk about something like getting 6 or 24.)

You can't, because you must have a card with such a combination. 90% of my cards got 108-180 max win. Sure, IF you got a card with a good combination, it's not very hard to find it.

[Niwashi]

... then getting 6 has the same odds as getting 24. and there is only one combination for those numbers and that is 1,2,3 and 7,8,9. but yet the payout greatly varies between the two results. same odds / different payouts. it just doesn't make any sense to me.

If you could see either all the numbers or none of them when you made your choice, then it wouldn't make sense. As it is, you're choosing between possibilities. Do you go for the line that has the most chances to win a significant amount or the line that has one possible chance to win the biggest amount?

i would say there is some sort of hidden factor that scrambles these odds. but i have not experienced anything of the like.

If you haven't experienced it, why would you think there's some other hidden factor? I'm pretty sure it's just nine digits randomly scattered across a card, with each combination just as likely as any other. Which ones you get is luck, and which of those you choose is a combination of luck and the probability deductions you can make from limited information.

[Gillionaire]

If you haven't experienced it, why would you think there's some other hidden factor? I'm pretty sure it's just nine digits randomly scattered across a card, with each combination just as likely as any other. Which ones you get is luck, and which of those you choose is a combination of luck and the probability deductions you can make from limited information.

Because each mini cactpot card has a number on the top right. I believe there are 9! possibilities for a 3x3 grid and there's no way that SE put in that many variations (~330k iirc) of the different mini cactpot cards. The numbers only seem to be 3 digits, so there probably a few hundred "random" cards it chooses from.. Even if there is an equal chance of pulling one card over another, there's no telling what those few hundred cards look like in terms of payout distribution

[Niwashi]

Because each mini cactpot card has a number on the top right. I believe there are 9! possibilities for a 3x3 grid and there's no way that SE put in that many variations (~330k iirc) of the different mini cactpot cards. The numbers only seem to be 3 digits, so there probably a few hundred "random" cards it chooses from.. Even if there is an equal chance of pulling one card over another, there's no telling what those few hundred cards look like in terms of payout distribution

It would be ridiculously inefficient to waste that much data on storing hundreds of card possibilities (not to mention all the effort to come up with them in the first place) when all they need is a single simple rule about how cards are put together in order to have all 9! possibilities. I just can't see them putting that much extra effort into making it bad when the better version is far far easier.

So while I'm not sure what if anything that number in the corner is, I'm pretty sure it's not an identifier of which card we got. (Not to mention the fact that if the system actually had identifiers like that of which card is which, it's certainly not something they'd show us in advance. It would pretty well wipe out the whole process of displaying a few numbers and choosing a line from that.)