About Mini-Cactpot Odds

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

hello. does it seem the odds to hit 7,8,9 and 1,2,3 are the same? they seem the same to me. i've hit both an equal amount of times now. so i ask... why give one more a reward then the other?

in fact... i fail to understand the entire system for this. for getting anything like 1,2,3 has the same odds as even 4,5,6... or practically anything else.



am i missing something here? i sure hope so! like i would assume there is some kind of scramble system that actually offsets the odds between getting something 1,2,3 and 7,8,9... but it just doesn't seem that way to me. :/

[Jambalaya]

Someone with more time could explain this better than I, but certain totals have lower or higher probability of happening, it's not a matter of odds of sequence such as 1,2,3 or 7,8,9. For sequence, all combinations have equal odds of appearing (1,2,4 has the same odds as 1,2,5 and 1,3,7, etc.)

However sums don't have the same odds. There are 84 sum possibilities.

I made a quick excel on the odds of each, hopefully this pastes well:

Outcome | Number of times | Odds of Outcome
6 1 1.1905%
7 1 1.1905%
8 2 2.3810%
9 3 3.5714%
10 4 4.7619%
11 5 5.9524%
12 7 8.3333%
13 7 8.3333%
14 8 9.5238%
15 8 9.5238%
16 8 9.5238%
17 7 8.3333%
18 7 8.3333%
19 5 5.9524%
20 4 4.7619%
21 3 3.5714%
22 2 2.3810%
23 1 1.1905%
24 1 1.1905%


Also note that in a 3x3 grid, you get 7 of these rolls, some of them exclude the others as each value can only appear once. That would also affect these possibilities, but I'm too lazy to factor them in. This gives a good overview though.

[BLaCKnBLu3B3RRY]

right. but once you learn the system it is fairly easy to almost always make 1k+ MGP on the mini-cactpot. there really doesn't seem to be much a gambling aspect to it. then getting 6 has the same odds as getting 24. and there is only one combination for those numbers and that is 1,2,3 and 7,8,9. but yet the payout greatly varies between the two results. same odds / different payouts. it just doesn't make any sense to me.

i would say there is some sort of hidden factor that scrambles these odds. but i have not experienced anything of the like. it is just like you said, getting any combination has the same odds as any other combination. while getting a specific sum total has different odds. (even that is wrong when we talk about something like getting 6 or 24.)

[Eye_Gore]

right. but once you learn the system it is fairly easy to almost always make 1k+ MGP on the mini-cactpot.

Don't know about that. I have played it everyday since it came out. With only a handful of times having max payout over 1k. Once at over 3k, and I have yet to have one hit 10k.

[RobinRethiel]

right. but once you learn the system it is fairly easy to almost always make 1k+ MGP on the mini-cactpot. there really doesn't seem to be much a gambling aspect to it. then getting 6 has the same odds as getting 24. and there is only one combination for those numbers and that is 1,2,3 and 7,8,9. but yet the payout greatly varies between the two results. same odds / different payouts. it just doesn't make any sense to me.

i would say there is some sort of hidden factor that scrambles these odds. but i have not experienced anything of the like. it is just like you said, getting any combination has the same odds as any other combination. while getting a specific sum total has different odds. (even that is wrong when we talk about something like getting 6 or 24.)

You can't, because you must have a card with such a combination. 90% of my cards got 108-180 max win. Sure, IF you got a card with a good combination, it's not very hard to find it.

[Kalandros]

A lot of cards have under 200 mgp regardless of which line you choose.

Its not always 1k+

[Firepower]

I've done this everyday since release, I always check every combination on the card after I have picked my line to see "what I could have won" I have hit a 789 once and had a card with 123 but only uncovered one of the 3 digits leaving me with a 50/50 chance of picking the right one and I picked wrong

I have a total of 14088 MGP from the mini cactpot, Feb 24th was release of Gold Saucer, I may have missed one or two days but not a significant amount that's a maximum total of 37 tickets at 100 a ticket that's a cost of 3700 leading me to a profit of 10388 MGP so far. Average ticket win before cost of ticket is ~380 for me.

[Magictrix]

Stats are great and all, but...
1 + 2 + 3 = 6

In Japanese, 6 is a lucky number,
4 = shi which also means death,
7 = shichi which starts with shi.
These numbers are so unlucky, that they even have an alternate words for these numbers, 4 being yon, and 7 being nana

[CChilao]

You're missing a very important detail. This minigame let's you pierce the veil. You get to look at some of the numbers before making your final decision. While 1-2-3 has the highest payout, the other low numbers are relatively poor paying. By contrast, the high sums have a much higher value on average. Therefore, given the option between picking a 1-2-? line, and a 9-8-? line, you have much more risk, clicking that 3+ point line. If you DON'T get that 10k pay out, you're not looking at a lot of gil at all.

[Alexiell]

^good point.
Also, Robin and Kalandros are right, i always check which rewards i could have gotten at the end and often 180 is the max. However, when there is a 1-2-3 i get it most of the time.