Triple Triad NPC Reward % drop rate?!!

[Snugglebutt]

Well there is no such thing as truly/completely random in as far as computer generated numbers go. They are all designed to mimic as close as possible to such but to date I do not think any has perfected it. The cards all have a drop % chance but you must remember that every single time beat the NPC it is still that same % chance so no matter how many times you beat it depending on your own luck you may or may not ever get it. Based on my best guess I would assume the chance of winning the legendary/collectors cards from those packs is very low, what I am certain of though is those cards are not the same % chance as the rest of the cards within the packs. I would be surprised if the drop % chance of for example Zidane or Warrior of Light is any higher than 1-5% and I would guess it is actually towards the lower end of that estimate.

[Starrywisdom]

I feel like it could(probably not) be related to the amount of people playing that NPC as well. For instance I've beat Elmer over 800 times and gotten 0 drops from him; and no I'm not exaggerating 800 times. I've got a handful(read: 50~) wins each on the other popular NPC's also with 0 drops. In fact the only time I've recieved a drop with less then 50 wins is when I'm at an npc with no one or 1-2 people there.

Of course that's completely anecdotal and while I do keep track of my own progress; I can't tell the legitimacy of what other people are reporting. A good friend of mine has been just as unlucky as I have with drops(around 2k wins total; only recieved 8 cards 3 of which were duplicates).

So the RNG for drop rate has to be extremely low and thus why so many people are experiencing long droughts.

[h0tNstilettos]

The higher the rarity the lower the percent chance of a drop. 5 star cards have a drop rate waaaay lower than what atma was even before atma was nerfed. You won't do nearly as many atma fates as you will TT wins to get the drop, unless you are extremely lucky. Basically it's a lower than 1 percent drop rate. My guess is anywhere from 0.001% to 0.005% drop rate. An NPC's most common card seems to have a drop rate of about 20% to 25% since they seem to drop on average 1 every 4 to 5 wins. These are fairly accurate estimates. As for dungeons and trial drops I'm really not sure. Most people get a 5 star trial drop within 60 runs, with exceptions. This would put a 5 star trial drop as 1.6% assuming 1 of every 60 runs will produce a drop. As for the common dungeon drops (aka non-raids), they have the highest percent chance of dropping than any other means of card obtainment. Most of those are 1 or 2 star and seem to have a 30% to 40% drop rate. For packs I have no idea.

[Sibyll]

math

Think you might be over estimating how low those percentages are. Myself personally, and others, have played NPCs like King Elmer 50+ times and gotten zero drops from him. As a reference I've seen 15% materia melds fail about as much before I get a success.

I don't think it's lower percentages, I think it's just really skewed RNG that needs to be fine tuned to the sample sizes that an individual would realistically play. Either that ore make it like an achievement where beating an NPC X times will net you Card A and so forth. They could do this with materia melding where instead of a percentage you just need to use increased numbers of a given materia to overmeld higher slots.