There is currently 80 cards in the game
20 1*
17 2*
13 3*
10 4*
20 5*
Lets assume you have every card for maximum chance of winning a random battle, you have a 0.375 chance of drawing a 4 or 5 star card per card so a fair assumption should be made that 0.375 x 5 > 1 therefore you should get one. After getting that one card be it 4 (33%) or 5 (66%) star you will then be only allowed 3 or below cards to be randomed in.
Assuming that one of the 5 cards is a high value means 4/5 need to be 3 star or lower.
that leaves you with:
26% 3*
34% 2*
40% 1*
I'm not sure what kind of deck composition you need to reliably beat Landenel but I would assume he would definitely have to screw up to be beaten by the weaker 1 stars and a single 5 star. Personally I just beat him the once and left him alone since it really is no fun just playing a game you have no control over. Also this is ignoring the fact that a handful of the 5 stars haven't been found yet and ones like lightning require winning tournaments, 1 million MGP for cloud or rare drops from booster packs which lower your chances of 5 stars, but as I mentioned at the start, it's not the problem of winning its the problem of whats the point it is essentially as someone mentioned earlier the aurum vale of npc's. Is Yoshi going to put "beat landanel 50 times for rare item drop to continue your relic weapon in heavensward or something?"
The reward is too low, I understand the challenge and difficulty and it being random but after people have gotten odin card (more than likely from farming urths fount, I can bet with a decent party I can kill odin in a similar time someone might get one win vs landenel) So enhance the rewards from these npc's to make the challenge rewarding. People will still be farming king elmer and indolent imperial in the future for MGP, nobody will be near Landenel because of his unfair setup.