I've seen people online that I haven't seen since last October, and I've been seeing more new players (players lower than r10 and wearing starter gear) in recent weeks. I've also noticed that the forum trolls have to work harder in order to find something to complain about, and for some of the things they're criticizing now, they have to go to great lengths to say they are unique to FFXIV when they are present in almost every MMO. (server lag for example)
I would say based on these two factors, that the game is getting to the point where it can compete with other MMOs, and that the people who are still saying the game will fail, are deluding themselves.