New Gathering nodes

[synesthetic]

I'm pretty sure I remember clearing debris for antumbral rocks and redolent logs in one swing pre-patch, using the artisan mainhand, not-melded offhand, and mostly optimal armor (just ~4 Gathering below max potential since I have forager stuff but cheaper accessories). So Toil is as effective as using Solid Reason here.

I think I also already had about 85% success rate on them then. With supras, the rate should be a bit higher. I can't check ingame right now to see my current success rate.

It's a given that 300 GP should be spent to boost your HQ rate, so the big question then is if you should spend the rest of your GP on success rate or on Toil/Solid Reason to get a swing back.
5 swings at 100% success and ~35% HQ, vs.
5 swings at ~87% success and ~35% HQ with a 6th swing that has two scenarios each with about a 50/50 chance of happening: ~87% success and ~35% HQ, or 100% success and 100% HQ. (I say it's a roughly 50/50 chance because 0.87^5 is just shy of 0.50.)

I'm not good with statistics, but my impression is that Toil/Solid Reason comes out ahead. If someone could properly math it out, that'd be fun to read.


edit: With supras and 4 gathering below max possible, and with a not-melded offhand (total 448 gathering, 438 perception), I had an 86% success rate and 33% HQ rate (with the buff going).
So for me, at least, it'd be a 47% chance of succeeding on the first 5 swings to get that 100%/100% proc.