RNG: How fake is it?

[HeckfyEx]

All RNGs are fake by definition, because the can not produce truly random numbers.

[Trixxy]

I've seen mmo's with far worse "rng", thinking back at how people could fail an enchantment at 101%(!!!) success rate and lose said piece of gear.

I really wonder what's so difficult about applying true rng to your game, not saying XIV's rng is jinxed but from what I've read there are several raiding groups with very odd item drop patterns.

[Sibyll]

I've seen mmo's with far worse "rng", thinking back at how people could fail an enchantment at 101%(!!!) success rate and lose said piece of gear.

I really wonder what's so difficult about applying true rng to your game, not saying XIV's rng is jinxed but from what I've read there are several raiding groups with very odd item drop patterns.

We cleared T9 about 30 times before we saw the BLM weapon drop, 20 before we saw the WAR weapon yet saw the DRG weapon drop 6 times, BRD weapon drop 5 times, and PLD weapon drop 3.

[Werhusky]

I really wonder what's so difficult about applying true rng to your game, not saying XIV's rng is jinxed but from what I've read there are several raiding groups with very odd item drop patterns.

We cleared T9 about 30 times before we saw the BLM weapon drop, 20 before we saw the WAR weapon yet saw the DRG weapon drop 6 times, BRD weapon drop 5 times, and PLD weapon drop 3.

All I say is first 9/10 T6 clears tank headpieces and took me 50+ ramuh clears to see the healring drop twice and only got it bc I forces our dragoon of our static to coheal (hes not bad but no raidheal xp, bit slower due to that and no swift :P) and I srsly dunno y but even then its was only a 6 i rolled (tend to be under 20 with my epic rolls XD)

RNG is lucky for some (getting weapons/gear at first clears) and pretty unlucky for others. RNG even ^^

And same for my melds I wasted 1,5m on my wvr offhand and when melded the gatherers for my friend was like 5 misses on 4th/5th slots

[Cutie_McSnuggles]

5% meld? well 5x20 is 100, so 25 should probably work, right? LOL. No.

Your logic is flawed. While you're right, you have a 1 in 20 chance to meld that does not mean if you do 20 melds you are guaranteed to have one of them work. As has already been pointed out in this thread, and every other one that brings up this issue, that's not how statistics work.

The devs have actually responded to the RNG thing already. Basically what they said is, "The problems with RNG are all in your head. Cognitive bias is real."
Here's the actual post if you'd like to read it. http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...=1#post2310334

[TriksteR]

99% of success, failed! By the way, this is the second time

[Aldehido]

The law of percentages in statistics dictate that to any given percentage it will be loyal to it but the way and when is unknown. 5% success might mean 5 out of 100, 50 out of a 1000, 500 out of 10,000, so on and so forth.

[Nutz]

I've never found the RNG to be anything but as advertised in this game. I've managed to gather HQ materials 4 times in a row when the odds were 15% and I've managed to gather NQ 5 times in a row when the odds were 45%. I've not really had similar experiences with crafting because it's been so rare that I don't hit 100% when it's something important. I've hit NQ at over 90% quality a couple times (mass producing twinthread or something), but I've also HQd things as low as 7% once or twice (obviously it was something I didn't care about since I completed the craft at 7% -- purely the material contribution). It all seems to level out to me.

[chidarake]

just yesterday I was crafting perfect pestle with all nq mats, for some reason rng decided to fail a bunch of hastys and I got 15% chance.. it gave hq,
I thought damn that was lucky.

next synth 18% again a hq, so yeah lucky day. one more to do.... you know where this is going right.!?

got 94% hq chance and got given nq.... so pure rng really. was I annoyed yes but I desynthed it and failed at 24% chance.. that wasn't a surprise really.


there is times when it seems the game just wants you to fail and so I've pondered the idea that there's some hidden mechanic in there to help balance the market.. but then you have to ask why would they bother doing this since the market always balances in the end anyways

you just have to take each instance of rng as a single entity and hope its always in your favour.

[Keyln]

Fun fact: The odds of success for something with a 5% success rate after 20 tries is 64.15%. In order to get enough tries so that the odds of failure become insignificant is 69. Have fun.

Also note that no matter how many tries you attempt, the odds of success will never be 100%, just ever closer to 100, but never touching.