RNG: How fake is it?

[Aldehido]

The law of percentages in statistics dictate that to any given percentage it will be loyal to it but the way and when is unknown. 5% success might mean 5 out of 100, 50 out of a 1000, 500 out of 10,000, so on and so forth.

[Nutz]

I've never found the RNG to be anything but as advertised in this game. I've managed to gather HQ materials 4 times in a row when the odds were 15% and I've managed to gather NQ 5 times in a row when the odds were 45%. I've not really had similar experiences with crafting because it's been so rare that I don't hit 100% when it's something important. I've hit NQ at over 90% quality a couple times (mass producing twinthread or something), but I've also HQd things as low as 7% once or twice (obviously it was something I didn't care about since I completed the craft at 7% -- purely the material contribution). It all seems to level out to me.

[Meier]

Its out of a 100% chance you'll get it on that try.

Not trying to argue by any means, just sincerely asking - where in the game does it specify it is out of 100 tries?

[chidarake]

just yesterday I was crafting perfect pestle with all nq mats, for some reason rng decided to fail a bunch of hastys and I got 15% chance.. it gave hq,
I thought damn that was lucky.

next synth 18% again a hq, so yeah lucky day. one more to do.... you know where this is going right.!?

got 94% hq chance and got given nq.... so pure rng really. was I annoyed yes but I desynthed it and failed at 24% chance.. that wasn't a surprise really.


there is times when it seems the game just wants you to fail and so I've pondered the idea that there's some hidden mechanic in there to help balance the market.. but then you have to ask why would they bother doing this since the market always balances in the end anyways

you just have to take each instance of rng as a single entity and hope its always in your favour.

[Keyln]

Fun fact: The odds of success for something with a 5% success rate after 20 tries is 64.15%. In order to get enough tries so that the odds of failure become insignificant is 69. Have fun.

Also note that no matter how many tries you attempt, the odds of success will never be 100%, just ever closer to 100, but never touching.

[shintashi]

what I was pointing out, like the "magical 69 attempts" toward insignificance, is that the RNG, possibly being based on a sample of 50,000 out of 1000,000 will statistically produce more negative trends than the numbers at first claim. Therefore, it needs to be self correcting, since people aren't sample sizes.

Statistics Lie. That's one of the first things they teach you in school. In Gaming Design, there's this Effort/Joy/Return/Struggle ratio. FF14's RNG is outside that curve. Fix it. And yes, on average, no matter who it is, even my least favorite person, if they are trying something RNG based, even they shouldn't have to attempt a massive sample size to see a return on their effort. A Person who fails 40 times out of 40 may be getting bad luck on a 5% or in my case, 14%, but if you only make 40 attempts, then the statistics are just lying. Its 0%, not 1%, 2%, or 90% on Tuesdays. RNG needs to adapt to the game's Sample Size. With exotic/rare items, that size is incredibly small.

[Eye_Gore]

Not trying to argue by any means, just sincerely asking - where in the game does it specify it is out of 100 tries?

It doesn't and I never said it does. Merely was saying that alot of people assumed that it was as there are a ton of threads about crafting RNG.

[sheriff_bell]

I feel your pain, i had 13 attempts at over melds today ranging from about 20-30% and was successful once.
I also had 7 attempts at desyntesizing ex primal accessories at 40% and got one.
Then to top it all off while i was crafting a rose gold choker, my hasty touches, which with steady hand 2 applied should have been at 80%, i hit 3 out of 9.
I now have one broken ps4 controller. It seems to me the rng seems to work more against you than it does for you.

[StouterTaru]

Alot of people think that the percentage is based on 100 tries..

Why would anyone think that percent is out of 100?

[Archadius]

General RNG Rule of Thumb:

If it doesn't say 100%, flip a coin, heads you succeed, tails you fail.
Be prepared to suffer these odds.