RNG: How fake is it?

[Sibyll]

From atma to desynths to melding, I've found the successes on low chance occurrences to come in waves, and changing zones or doing something else for a few minutes can alter being in one of those lucky times or not.

I've had this feeling myself. I've had master book 2s that were riddled with the worst RNG. I come back to them the next day and I kill it in 4 synths.

[PenutButter]

5% meld? well 5x20 is 100

LOL, that's not how statistics works man, not even close. 5% is abysmally low and if you manage to get it in 20 attempts than you are very VERY lucky.

But yes, it is just confirmation, frustration, and self-center bias. I like to joke that this game's RNG system in this game is rigged but I assure you that if you were to craft 1000 items at 90% HQ rate, you WILL get around 900 HQ items. The perception is further skewed by the fact that there are lot more people who NQ at 90% than there are those who HQ at 10%, simply due to the fact the instances of people completing a craft at around 90% is FAR greater than the instances of people completing it at 10%. Even with horrible gear and zero knowledge of the crafting system, you would still be able to get over 10-20% on most items in this game.

From atma to desynths to melding, I've found the successes on low chance occurrences to come in waves, and changing zones or doing something else for a few minutes can alter being in one of those lucky times or not.

I do notice this as well, that sometimes you get a horrible streak of fails and then sometimes you get blessed a streak of success. I stand by my statement that you will get 900 HQ items out of 1000 items if you have a rate of 90% HQ chance but this does suggest that the RNG system in this game is odd. However, it is entirely possible that the system doesn't have an odd pattern and I'm just noticing the few rare instances where there just happens, by chance, to be an odd pattern.

[HeckfyEx]

All RNGs are fake by definition, because the can not produce truly random numbers.

[Trixxy]

I've seen mmo's with far worse "rng", thinking back at how people could fail an enchantment at 101%(!!!) success rate and lose said piece of gear.

I really wonder what's so difficult about applying true rng to your game, not saying XIV's rng is jinxed but from what I've read there are several raiding groups with very odd item drop patterns.

[Sibyll]

I've seen mmo's with far worse "rng", thinking back at how people could fail an enchantment at 101%(!!!) success rate and lose said piece of gear.

I really wonder what's so difficult about applying true rng to your game, not saying XIV's rng is jinxed but from what I've read there are several raiding groups with very odd item drop patterns.

We cleared T9 about 30 times before we saw the BLM weapon drop, 20 before we saw the WAR weapon yet saw the DRG weapon drop 6 times, BRD weapon drop 5 times, and PLD weapon drop 3.

[Cutie_McSnuggles]

5% meld? well 5x20 is 100, so 25 should probably work, right? LOL. No.

Your logic is flawed. While you're right, you have a 1 in 20 chance to meld that does not mean if you do 20 melds you are guaranteed to have one of them work. As has already been pointed out in this thread, and every other one that brings up this issue, that's not how statistics work.

The devs have actually responded to the RNG thing already. Basically what they said is, "The problems with RNG are all in your head. Cognitive bias is real."
Here's the actual post if you'd like to read it. http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...=1#post2310334

[Meier]

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

Then what is the 95% out of? If not 100, then what? >.> Percentage has to be out of something. 1000? 2000? a million? lol

I guess we may never know >.>

[Werhusky]

I really wonder what's so difficult about applying true rng to your game, not saying XIV's rng is jinxed but from what I've read there are several raiding groups with very odd item drop patterns.

We cleared T9 about 30 times before we saw the BLM weapon drop, 20 before we saw the WAR weapon yet saw the DRG weapon drop 6 times, BRD weapon drop 5 times, and PLD weapon drop 3.

All I say is first 9/10 T6 clears tank headpieces and took me 50+ ramuh clears to see the healring drop twice and only got it bc I forces our dragoon of our static to coheal (hes not bad but no raidheal xp, bit slower due to that and no swift :P) and I srsly dunno y but even then its was only a 6 i rolled (tend to be under 20 with my epic rolls XD)

RNG is lucky for some (getting weapons/gear at first clears) and pretty unlucky for others. RNG even ^^

And same for my melds I wasted 1,5m on my wvr offhand and when melded the gatherers for my friend was like 5 misses on 4th/5th slots

[Eye_Gore]

Then what is the 95% out of? If not 100, then what? >.> Percentage has to be out of something. 1000? 2000? a million? lol

I guess we may never know >.>

Its out of a 100% chance you'll get it on that try. Alot of people think that the percentage is based on 100 tries. So that if you have a 95% chance at something if you craft 100 of them 95 will make it, or if its a 5% chance then 5 out of 100 will make it.

That is not how the system works, its all based on a single try. It is mostly noticeable on gathering classes and % chance at gathering a HQ item. If you have 20% chance at HQ and gather 100 times, chances are your gathered HQ item is going to be more or less than 20 gathered. Same goes for crafting.

I guess maybe think of it as a roll of the die. A die has 6 sides, 6 numbers. You have a 1 in 6 chance (or a 16.6% chance) you will roll a 2. Roll the die 6 (or 100) times, how many times will you get a 2? You may get it once, twice, or 6 times, (more or less than 16) Now this example has to deal with the physical world so variations exist, like what RNG tries to accomplish.

[TriksteR]

99% of success, failed! By the way, this is the second time