At this point - I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed it to January 27th? Yeah - there was that JP stream, but the New Year's post was made after the JP stream and provided a "window" of mid to late January. The fact that a window was provided after the January 20th mention on the JP stream would seem to indicate that nothing is set in stone.

I would say there's a stronger chance at this point (maybe 60/40) that the patch won't be out by January 20th.