With the expansion on the "somewhat distant" horizon, this may be a good opportunity to propose some adjustments to the Crafting System, in light of 3 and 4 star crafting, and future crafter progression. This idea is based around Conditions, and how we could leverage them to make crafting more interactive and skill based.
Right now we have conditions which influence the effectiveness of Quality Gain.
So why not add other conditions to influence Progress and "Effect" Gain? Granted this would required a reworking of the current conditions, and maybe adjustments of success rates for HT and RS, anyway...
New Synthesis Conditions
Malleable - Increases the effectiveness of Quality actions by 50%. (Basically the current Good Condition)
Expedient - Increases the effectiveness of Static Progress actions by 50%. (So every progress action except for PbP, which is percent based)
Insightful - Increases the effectiveness of Augmentation actions by 50%. (This is the interesting one, more on this later)
New Condition Effects
So we got rid of Excellent... no more Excellent fishing... Instead we have a Good for Quality, Progress, and Buffs. The Quality and Progress are self explanatory, but Buffs is where "skill" comes back into the equation.
Firstly, Tricks of the Trade would work on Malleable and Insightful, but not Expedient (or maybe all). ToT on Malleable gives you 20 CP. ToT on Insightful gives you 30 CP, since ToT counts as a buff.
(In essence if it does not give progress or quality, it is a buff)
Now, what exactly would Insightful do? Well it basically multiplies the effect of a buffing skill used on that condition by 50%.
So SH1 becomes +30% chance. SH2 becomes + 45% chance... Hello 95% HT!
GS goes from +100% quality to +150%... so no, not triple, 2x -> 2.5x.
Waste Not and Waste Not 2 would go from reducing Durability costs by 5 to reducing by 7.
Master's Mend would restore 45 durability, and Manipulation would restore 15 per tick.
The tricky one would be Master's Mend 2, which would restore 90, meaning we would need to allow for recipe durability to go over 80... lets say to 100 at most.
Ingenuity 1 would lower the recipe level by 15, Ing2 by 30.
Reclaim would be unaffected... or it'll get you back the shards/crystals/clusters as well.
Comfort Zone would restore 12 CP for 10 steps.
Inner Quiet is not affected.
Condition Order and Observe
To facilitate the proper tactical use of these new conditions, we will require a new logic regarding how conditions appear during a synthesis. The proposed logic is as follows: *Alternative logic after post*
The synth starts on a Normal Condition.
Any action performed on a Normal Condition will cause it to change to one of the 3 new Conditions.
Any action performs on one of the 3 Conditions will cause it to change back to Normal.
You cannot have the same non-Normal condition appear twice in a row.
So we basically alternate. Step 1 is always Normal, Step 2 is some new condition, Step 3 is Normal, Step 4 is some new condition BUT NOT the same one from Step 2, and so forth.
Now what about Observe?
Observe should be changed to cost 20 CP. It counts as a step, so it will result in a condition change. However Observe "locks your buffs", meaning that if you have 2 turns left on GS and SH2, you use Observe, the Condition changes, but you STILL have 2 turns on GS and SH2, BECAUSE you used Observe instead of an action.
In effect Observe is the new "fishing", but the CP cost is fairly high, and you cannot use it to gain CP, as it would take 2 Observes to potentially get an Insightful Condition for a 30 CP ToT, at the cost of 40 CP, so no exploits there.
Conclusion
With these new conditions in place, and perhaps raising the success rates of HT and RS to 55% (100% with Insightful SH2), we can make crafting a more decision based process.
In particular the Insightful Condition would allow players to make more important decisions about how to best utilize their buffs to improve their chances at the all important HQ. While other Conditions, such as Expedient would offer an opportunity to save on Durability in the long run, by reducing the total number of progress actions required to finish the synth.
Of course with enough stats over the item requirements, one could still macro-craft, however for items of value, the player who actively, and thoughtfully crafts will be greatly rewarded. More meaningful decisions and less reliance on RNG will yield a better crafting system for years to come.
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* Alternative Logic to Conditions *
We could have every 4th condition be Insightful, as this condition in particular is what gives the player true control over the crafting process. This would mean we no longer have a repeating restriction on subsequent conditions.
So we would have something like:
Step 1 - Normal
Step 2 - Malleable or Expedient
Step 3 - Normal
Step 4 - Insightful
Step 5 - Normal
Step 6 - Malleable or Expedient
Step 7 - Normal
Step 8 - Insightful
Step 9 - Normal
And so forth... This structure would give the most control to the player, while keeping some RNG in whether you get an Expedient or Malleable when you really need/want it.