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  1. #11
    Player
    Keyln's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    307
    Character
    Samantha Smith
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by MilesSaintboroguh View Post
    If that was the case, there'd be fewer complaints. It's basically Atma all over again; each attempt is its own roll, not successive rolls.
    I'm going to venture a guess and say that you've never taken a statistics course before. I'm not saying that each roll influences the other rolls, but the odds do change in a series of rolls. Think of it like this. Let's take a coin, which being perfectly balanced, has a 50% of being heads and 50% of being tails. To put it in a different way, there's a 50% of it being heads, and 50% of NOT being heads. After all, it's H or T. But what are the odds of flipping the coin twice and NOT being heads? 25%. That is to say, there is only one outcome out of four that will not result in flipping tails (HH, TH, HT, TT). Flip it a third time? 12.5% (HHH, HHT, THH, THT, HTH, HTT, TTH, TTT) Keep in mind that each coin flip is a separate event, and does not necessarily influence the other coin flips.

    The basic principle is that the more something is done, the less likely of something NOT happening. As in this case, the odds of getting the relic item in a dungeon run is about 15%. This means that the odds of NOT getting a relic item is 85% in a SINGLE run. The odds of not getting the item in a series of five runs is much lower at 44%, or 85%^5. This isn't Gambler's Fallacy or saying that each run influences other runs. Rather, this is simple probability mathematics.

    The problem of the FATE atmas is that the drop rate was really low, like about 2% or 3% or something like that. So, that means that there was, at best, 97% chance of NOT getting the Atma. After 20 FATEs, though, the odds drop to 54% of not getting the Atma in any of those 20 FATEs. It would take about 100 FATEs for it to get down to a insignificant % chance.
    (5)
    Last edited by Keyln; 12-13-2014 at 02:41 PM.