Well, I don't do raids very often...and I didn't do sky or anything like that. So since I didn't do them in XI, I doubt I will do them here. I play a game for the main scenario, not for gear...to me that is sort of like a p1$$ing contest. So no I won't leave if it becomes raid centric.
You mention that raids are pretty repetitive...wasn't sky, sea, dynamis, etc. pretty much the same? Need X jobs for this that and the other, kite this, kill that, earn points for loot claim...it all pretty much the same scenario if you ask me...so either way, I think people would be board to tears doing XI style raids or XIV style raids...I sure as heck couldn't pull myself to dedicate years of my life to doing what many did in XI for all that rare/ex drops...no way in hell.