Percentage chance of success

[Midori_Dragon]

In 4 years no one seems to be able to fix the % chance of success to reflect anything close to the reality of what we get. I'm not alone in the constant issue of failures that the rng gives that when added together don't even come remotely close. It would be one thing if there was the occasional streak of failures, but I get failures at the average percentage of what I should be getting for success.

This isn't a new issue, MANY people have it and complain regularly about it, but no one seems to care. With so much left to the random chance, constant failure on things that shouldn't fail most of the time removes the enjoyment of the game and will make me, for one, not renew again if it continues. If there is nothing wrong then it shouldn't be so obvious to everyone how rigged it is.

[Ekko]

I wrote a topic about that and crafting 3.9/4* a few week ago all I got was "working as intended, RNG is RNG, we're sorry for you". Because it feels and it is wrong when 80% and 90% success actions keep failing over and over again, each days many times a day.

Failing 5 of 8 actions at 80% success rate is wrong when I craft 4* stuff and then Succeding 25 Hasty touch in a row at 80% when I craft two 3* items is wrong too because you feel cheated as if there was an hidden multiplier quotient messing with the success rate.

The RNG in this game really lets you down when you need it the most, how many times SH wears off right when you get an Excellent, BB is there waiting at 90% success rate, you know pressing it should get you an 100% HQ, but you know it's just gonna fail.

Try messing with reclaim on HL Recipes, you'll see

[Xarialith]

I know there is something more on the calculations thats not being overlooked properly, back when 2.3 first came out, i went out crafting as normal, i started normal and went for some quick HQ's on low level items, then it happened with "steady hand II" on, my advanced touch failed three times in a row, i just completed the craft and went again perplexed, it happened again a couple more times in the same day and i decided to just stop crafting for the day "bad mojo" i asumed, later on it hit me that it was right after the 2.3 patch.

This all leads me to believe the calculations to the %'s are not as thoroughly revised as they should, that there are certain parts with the skills that are perhaps modular in nature and the overall result gets messed up when there are code changes

[Alistaire]

...and for every post like this there's 99% of people out there experiencing the success rates for what they are. I could even tell you of stories of rates well above posted %s, 5 in a row 20-25% ish, that kind of thing. There is nothing wrong with the % shown in game.

[Xine]

And I'm sure 14% success rate means it should take well over 200 attempts to successfully meld. Yes, that must be it, there's nothing wrong with the "RNG" in this game...

[Alistaire]

Nope, only the amounts of exaggeration that go on in these threads.

[Xine]

That's not an exaggeration, I lost count after 200 attempts.

I get random runs of "bad RNG" while crafting, and I can deal with that. But it should not take over 200 attempts to meld 1 materia to my gear when the given success rate is 14%, and in case anyone who reads this fails at math.... 14% of 200 is 28, theoretically the meld should have stuck 28 times (at least), but it did not.

[alexhatesmil]

The given success rate is 14%, and in case anyone who reads this fails at math.... 14% of 200 is 28, theoretically the meld should have stuck 28 times (at least), but it did not.

A 14% chance of success does not mean "out of every 100 attempts, 14 will be successful"; rather, it means "each individual attempt has a 14% chance of success". Which means, of course, that every attempt has an 86% chance of failure.

Let me reiterate: Every single time you attempt that meld, you have an 86% chance of failure. If I failed such a meld a thousand times in a row, I wouldn't be that surprised.

That said, on average, given a large enough sample size, 14% of all attempts will be successful. Unfortunately for you, 200 attempts does not constitute a large enough sample size. Let us know what your success rate is after another million or so attempts.

[Eisengrim]

A 14% chance of success does not mean "out of every 100 attempts, 14 will be successful"; rather, it means "each individual attempt has a 14% chance of success". Which means, of course, that every attempt has an 86% chance of failure.

While you're right, I can't help but point out that 14 percent literally means 14 out of 100 lol

[alexhatesmil]

While you're right, I can't help but point out that 14 percent literally means 14 out of 100 lol

I guess my point was that people shouldn't think a 14% chance of success means "this meld will succeed 14 times out of 100". It's more like you have to roll a 100-sided die for every attempt. If you roll 1-14, your meld will be successful, while if you roll 15-100, it'll fail.