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  1. #11
    Player
    Duuude007's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    2,954
    Character
    Duuude Bismarck
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Armorer Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Lexiii View Post
    Source? Give me unbiased data. If you understand probability, then you also understand sampling bias :P.
    Indeed. You would need multiple sets of twelve (30+ completed Atma weapons if we're being serious about the analysis) using the same exact means to track each: number of fates divided by the number of atma.

    Find the mean value, the standard deviation, then you have sufficient data to calculate probability which can be used to help forecast drop rate.

    Based on my experience, my results have implied a 3.25% droprate on average. But I would prefer at least 4x more data for it to be considered a sufficient sample size.
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    Last edited by Duuude007; 10-02-2014 at 04:49 PM.