Fix ATMA drop [LIKE] Thread

[Lexiii]

Crosspost from the other atma thread:

Honestly, I thought this through and there's a very easy solution to the problem. Increase the droprate of atma to 50%. Change the required atma to 16 atma per region. Bam. Atma is fixed.

1) It requires, on average, the exact same amount of effort/time that atma currently does. 400 fates.
2) It allows for the more "casual" playstyle that the relic should be.
3) Players like seeing progress. Grinding for an hour and getting 3 fates > grinding for an hour and getting 0.
4) It almost completely removes RNG from the picture.

Here, I decided to graph it out. I used 1 million samples. Green is 3% chance and 12 atma, violet is 50% chance and 200 atma. http://i.imgur.com/6Yn1Q0w.png Both average out to exactly 400 fates required, but the std deviation is much much lower, it's nearly entirely unlikely you will require more than 500 fates. X axis is # of fates, Y axis is # of times the last atma was gotten on that fate.

[Purrfectstorm]

So I mentioned this earlier in this thread but it took me 360 fates for all 12 atma. In the last 3 days, I just grinded all 12 atma again. This time it only took 190 fates. Maybe SE did already increase the drop rate? Or maybe I was just luckier. Regardless, grinding atma in a short amount of time is totally doable. Hours-wise, it took me <15 hours (I used 30 Gysahl Greens plus sometimes my choco died). Anyway, I'm sure SE will increase the drop rate eventually. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it with 2.4 but I'd say definitely by the time of the expansion.

[Squa11_Leonhart]

So I mentioned this earlier in this thread but it took me 360 fates for all 12 atma. In the last 3 days, I just grinded all 12 atma again. This time it only took 190 fates. Maybe SE did already increase the drop rate? Or maybe I was just luckier. Regardless, grinding atma in a short amount of time is totally doable. Hours-wise, it took me <15 hours (I used 30 Gysahl Greens plus sometimes my choco died). Anyway, I'm sure SE will increase the drop rate eventually. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it with 2.4 but I'd say definitely by the time of the expansion.

They didn't, the algorithm was just in your favour

[Lexiii]

So I mentioned this earlier in this thread but it took me 360 fates for all 12 atma. In the last 3 days, I just grinded all 12 atma again. This time it only took 190 fates. Maybe SE did already increase the drop rate? Or maybe I was just luckier. Regardless, grinding atma in a short amount of time is totally doable. Hours-wise, it took me <15 hours (I used 30 Gysahl Greens plus sometimes my choco died). Anyway, I'm sure SE will increase the drop rate eventually. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it with 2.4 but I'd say definitely by the time of the expansion.

RNG is RNG is RNG. I just finished mine and it took over 550 fates. The 3% drop rate hasn't changed.

[Squa11_Leonhart]

RNG is RNG is RNG. I just finished mine and it took over 550 fates. The 3% drop rate hasn't changed.

Statistics involving atma drops have already set the drop rate at 1%.

[Lexiii]

Statistics involving atma drops have already set the drop rate at 1%.

There's absolutely no way this is true. This puts the average time for Atma at 1,200 FATEs. The distribution doesn't match anything I've seen.

[Squa11_Leonhart]

There's absolutely no way this is true. This puts the average time for Atma at 1,200 FATEs. The distribution doesn't match anything I've seen.

And when you average a group of players thats about where the data medians in at.

However for a single person, http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/dr...ity/#continued

[Lexiii]

And when you average a group of players thats about where the data medians in at.

Source? Give me unbiased data. If you understand probability, then you also understand sampling bias :P.

[Duuude007]

Source? Give me unbiased data. If you understand probability, then you also understand sampling bias :P.

Indeed. You would need multiple sets of twelve (30+ completed Atma weapons if we're being serious about the analysis) using the same exact means to track each: number of fates divided by the number of atma.

Find the mean value, the standard deviation, then you have sufficient data to calculate probability which can be used to help forecast drop rate.

Based on my experience, my results have implied a 3.25% droprate on average. But I would prefer at least 4x more data for it to be considered a sufficient sample size.

[RiceisNice]

...

I've always seen 3% being the magical number for the droprate here (which is still too damn low imo for something aimless like this). Probability on paper always plays out differently than actual practice, especially with very few variables that influence it in the latter (straight up drop rate.)