Alfgar has been up for almost 2 hours in Ul'Dah on Lindblum - I saw him at 11:08pm, he was still there when I gave up waiting around at the outrider spawn point north of Horizon (around 14.27). No imperials ever showed up and no outrider. I returned to Ul'Dah, Alfgar is still shouting about the invasion (as of 12:45pm), still says they are north of Horizon.

If it wasn't so late I'd have checked out the other locations to see if the attack was just happening elsewhere. Either it is bugged or Alfgar stays out longer now and always says Horizon, when they could actually be attacking another camp instead.