REQUEST A REPORT ON PERCENTAGES

[Shodori]

I am either the unluckiest person in the world or this system you have setup with melding and crafting/ desynth percentages is a load of bull.

I have a screen shot of a 24 percent chance meld failing 26 times before It takes.

I have crafted 14 i level 90 items to desynth with a 54 percent chance to desynth
All failed , you know the odds of that are 1 in 16000

Dont want to tell you how many times my 11 or 12 stack Byregots has failed on a 3 star craft at 90 percent.

So yeah I would love to see an over all crafting spreadsheet of your system to see if your numbers are actually somewhat on the money or not. Given that your sample is huge it should be within a 0.1 percentage point given the millions of button presses, melds and desynths.

Cause i believe the number displayed is a bunch of BS. OR SHOW us the number we rolled against. Instead of just you lost

[Cadwgan]

Chance is something the human brain does not comprehend well, we're always looking for some form of bias and we get it mixed up with probability too easily, most of the time we never pay any attention to the successes, what we want, only the failures, what we don't want.

Most of the time we think something with a 50% chance done 1000 times will result in 500 successes, that's how probability works but not chance, each roll is separate and has no effect on the outcome of the next.

Also, don't bother tracking the probability of failing x number of y% chances, your next meld still has a 76% chance of failure and your next desynth a 46% chace of blowing up regardless of how many are done.

tl;dr; Random shit is random and human brain doesn't want what it no likey.