Quote Originally Posted by Noll View Post
You seem very good with statistics so, what's the chance of having 5 times the same weapon in 14 fights?
And what's the chance of not finding 4 of the 9 weapons after 14 tries?
Getting 5 of the same weapon in 14 runs? ~1.17% (i.e. a little less than 12 in 1000 groups that clear 14 times will have this happen)
Not getting 4 of the 9 weapons in 14 runs? .54162% (i.e. a little more that a 5 in 1000 groups that clear 14 times will have this happen)

Nobody talked about RNG, this is going to happen with this system. You have people left without their weapon for the entirety of the patch, and now that 2.4 is close the weapon will probably be even obsolete.
High Allagan weapons (and the Allagan weapons before 2.2) were always prestige/trophy weapons. If you can beat Turn 9 (and Turn 5 pre-2.2) you did not need the items they drop.

Quote Originally Posted by Ryuko View Post
I've had little 'hunches' about droprates too, but it honestly probably does just boil down to complete, equal RNG. But the tricky part about that is, every chance is calculated independently... which is why you could theoretically get tails on every flip of a coin for any amount of sample size. The few 'hunches' I have gotten involve items dropping after a player receives their first clear. I can't tell you how many times I've taken one person through a primal extreme clear (and they are the ONLY person who needs the win) and the item for their class drops. Aka, if we're getting a tank a clear, the fending item drops. If we're getting a healer a clear, the healing piece drops. This is just a hunch and probably has no basis in reality, but it makes me raise my eyebrows every time.
That is what is called "Confirmation Bias." You notice when the drop and first timer sync up, but (subconsciously) ignore when they don't.