A rant on the high allagan weapons drop system

[dannycookies]

Another fine example of how people do not get statistics. People are complaining about imbalances in very small sample sizes. Each completion of T9 has a ~11% chance of dropping each specific weapon. You need a far larger sample size than the ~15 clears you have or the 112 clears listed in this thread to prove that the RNG is skewed.

I must have missed where someone said that the RNG is skewed. Most of us are just annoyed with a loot system itself. Even if my group got a different weapon every week (not 6x summoner books), I'd still support a token system because it guarantees someone will always be able to use the loot that drops.

[Molic]

Instead of a token system and RNG system, they should just drop a "weapon part" from each turn in coil and you take all 4 pieces to gerolt to get the i115 weapon crafted. Thus you can just choose what weapon you want, while still only bringing one i115 weapon in a week per group. Plus this would probably make it so everyone would continue farming all the turns after it goes to duty finder so they can collect all the weapons even if they got all the gear. Guess its similar to a token system but meh keeps the 1 weapon a week going.

[Noll]

Another fine example of how people do not get statistics. People are complaining about imbalances in very small sample sizes. Each completion of T9 has a ~11% chance of dropping each specific weapon. You need a far larger sample size than the ~15 clears you have or the 112 clears listed in this thread to prove that the RNG is skewed.

You seem very good with statistics so, what's the chance of having 5 times the same weapon in 14 fights?
And what's the chance of not finding 4 of the 9 weapons after 14 tries?

Nobody talked about RNG, this is going to happen with this system. You have people left without their weapon for the entirety of the patch, and now that 2.4 is close the weapon will probably be even obsolete.

[Jodou]

WoW tried their hand at breaking losing streaks like what we're complaining about with a coin roll system tied to a weekly quest. It allowed the player to, upon defeating a boss, choose to roll if their loot didn't drop for a second chance at their class loot from the chest. I found it to be wildly useful and if not for it, I'd never have seen roughly 20% of my BiS gear. While I don't see the need for a system like that in this game yet, I do see a need for either increased drops from the final boss OR more options than two sets of gear to choose from.

Horizontal progression in this game is atrocious.

[Ultimatecalibur]

I must have missed where someone said that the RNG is skewed.

OP was asking why they were missing 4 of the high allagan weapons after 14 clears.

Most of us are just annoyed with a loot system itself. Even if my group got a different weapon every week (not 6x summoner books), I'd still support a token system because it guarantees someone will always be able to use the loot that drops.

And then after 8 clears you would be mostly done with T9 and Coil. Coil is intended to be the primary hardcore endgame content for a period of roughly 24 weeks. 8 weeks after you began clearing T7, pretty much everyone had a UAT and therefor a weathered Soldiery weapon, right? With UAT and Sands of Time you have your i110 Token weapons, but people in this thread are complaining about the fact that they are not getting the exact i115 prestige weapons they want and that they got multiples of stuff they only wanted one of.

[Ryuko]

I went through months of T5 wins pre-2.2 and never even saw my weapon. We got a looooot of SCH books, though. After coil 1 was unlocked, it took me weeks of farming to get my weapon, and by that point it was almost a mute point. I haven't beaten T9 enough times to complain yet, but I've yet to see my weapon there either. RNG is RNG, but I'm less annoyed about T9 because, while the weapon damage increase is certainly nice, the stats themselves aren't as downright sexy for SMN as the T5 book was. I like the direction SE took with the oils/sands/tomestones (not counting the argument about their availability in ST). I hope in the future, they will consider a token-like system for weapons like these (drops from the hardest current endgame dungeon). But, until then... RNG will be RNG. =/ Sorry about your group's luck. I feel you there.

[MageBlack]

I almost think the RNG is slanted like this on purpose. For example, I was trying to get my WAR Ifrit axe right near when the game was released, I must have done it a dozen times a day for a little over three weeks before it finally dropped and I got it. Once I got it, i stopped doing it. With Tanks being in short supply and highly desired it would almost make sense to make their drop rate a little lower, forcing them to continue doing it beyond that of the plentiful DPS. It sucks but it would make sense. I would hope they havent designed it that way but I would understand why.

[Ryuko]

I almost think the RNG is slanted like this on purpose. For example, I was trying to get my WAR Ifrit axe right near when the game was released, I must have done it a dozen times a day for a little over three weeks before it finally dropped and I got it. Once I got it, i stopped doing it. With Tanks being in short supply and highly desired it would almost make sense to make their drop rate a little lower, forcing them to continue doing it beyond that of the plentiful DPS. It sucks but it would make sense. I would hope they havent designed it that way but I would understand why.

I've had little 'hunches' about droprates too, but it honestly probably does just boil down to complete, equal RNG. But the tricky part about that is, every chance is calculated independently... which is why you could theoretically get tails on every flip of a coin for any amount of sample size. The few 'hunches' I have gotten involve items dropping after a player receives their first clear. I can't tell you how many times I've taken one person through a primal extreme clear (and they are the ONLY person who needs the win) and the item for their class drops. Aka, if we're getting a tank a clear, the fending item drops. If we're getting a healer a clear, the healing piece drops. This is just a hunch and probably has no basis in reality, but it makes me raise my eyebrows every time.

[cryptic_angel]

What if the reward for 10 clears was a token you could exchange for any HA weapon of your choice?

This needs to happen.

There is no good counter argument to be had to this suggestion. People deserve a HA weapon after farming t9 for over two months and getting the ten clears achievement.

[Ultimatecalibur]

You seem very good with statistics so, what's the chance of having 5 times the same weapon in 14 fights?
And what's the chance of not finding 4 of the 9 weapons after 14 tries?

Getting 5 of the same weapon in 14 runs? ~1.17% (i.e. a little less than 12 in 1000 groups that clear 14 times will have this happen)
Not getting 4 of the 9 weapons in 14 runs? .54162% (i.e. a little more that a 5 in 1000 groups that clear 14 times will have this happen)

Nobody talked about RNG, this is going to happen with this system. You have people left without their weapon for the entirety of the patch, and now that 2.4 is close the weapon will probably be even obsolete.

High Allagan weapons (and the Allagan weapons before 2.2) were always prestige/trophy weapons. If you can beat Turn 9 (and Turn 5 pre-2.2) you did not need the items they drop.

I've had little 'hunches' about droprates too, but it honestly probably does just boil down to complete, equal RNG. But the tricky part about that is, every chance is calculated independently... which is why you could theoretically get tails on every flip of a coin for any amount of sample size. The few 'hunches' I have gotten involve items dropping after a player receives their first clear. I can't tell you how many times I've taken one person through a primal extreme clear (and they are the ONLY person who needs the win) and the item for their class drops. Aka, if we're getting a tank a clear, the fending item drops. If we're getting a healer a clear, the healing piece drops. This is just a hunch and probably has no basis in reality, but it makes me raise my eyebrows every time.

That is what is called "Confirmation Bias." You notice when the drop and first timer sync up, but (subconsciously) ignore when they don't.