The truth about housing and gil?

[Takophiliac]

I doubt many people of have seen it, but buried in a thread about housing prices is this bit i wrote a couple of weeks ago:

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...=1#post2468479

For those who aren't into a lot of reading, i made a supposition about the narrow margins between gil reported on the server by the production team (they tell us it's a lot) and how housing wasn't going to be for us "regular" people anytime soon. In that post i made a supposition that there might be something like 6 trillion gil based on quoted subscriber numbers, the idea that "everyone should be able to afford a house" and the cost of housing if all houses cost the mean price of a small.

But then today this comes out (fromhttp://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...99#post2505199):

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/a...0&d=1413527450

This seems to indicate that there is more like 429 billion gil. This is, give or take, about an order of magnitude less than i'd guessed.

Further down in my post i indicate that it appears that the total value of all housing (at the time of release of the last patch, including everything already in existence) is something like 550 billion.

This doesn't look like the "everyone should be able to afford a house" that's been getting thrown around the forums and implied by the team. Someone's missing some maths, and i hope it's me.

[Titor]

Too tired to check your math right now, and am going to go off of those numbers for the rest of this post.

That total amount of gil also probably held a large number of RMT banks. I would estimate that at least 1/4 of them are gilsellers (Pulling this number out of the air, have nothing to back it, but at the rates/price that gil sellers seem to be at, they definitely have no shortage on millions of gil).

Taking out this 'illegal' currency, there is probably around 300 billion gil (still, pulling this number out of the air, but you can understand the point I am getting at).

Did your calculations on the housing account for deflation? Or was it full price or averaged? I noticed that most of the houses on my server got bought up before any meaningful deflation happened. The last house on the server (A large) sold for about 40 mil about a week ago. A 4th class plot (originally ~74 mil) so it was not even at full deflation yet.


Considering they said they will double housing availability in 2.4, you could probably double your estimate without any significant increase in player-obtained gil.

[Takophiliac]

The estimate was based on assuming all houses would have the same mean price as those on the middle servers, without deflation (so at full cost). I also mention that more than 30% of the houses are on high cost servers where the houses cost more.

[tocsin]

Just fact checking for this thread a bit, I found a few numbers that are just a bit off.

1. original post
a. based on 1.8 million subs. we have 2 million created accounts, however Yoshi has recently stated that ffxiv only receives 500k login requests on average per day. not unique logins, total logins. factoring in people needing to relog from 90k's, and such, against the fact that many people don't log in every day, lets offset those two numbers and say about 500k subs total.

additional source: http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/
investor financial consolidation report for june 2014

lists 342 million yen generated by subscriptions total for ffxi and ffxiv, which is 3.1 million dollars at current exchange rate / average 12 dollars per sub = 260k subs. however, lets go 500k for laughs.

b. housing numbers are a bit off. 8 wards currently, not 7. However, you overestimated the housing number at 100 intead of 90 so it almost evens out to 720 vs 700.

c. 64 servers. so 720*64 = 46080 houses total as of 2.38. lets round that to 46k

D. so 46k houses total for 500k subs. that's roughly one house for every 11 people. still not a great amount, but now lets consider the paywall, the subject of the current post.

2. current post.

A. keep in mind this gil number factors in that 6 of every 8 wards were already sold out before time of survey. looking at those assets, the number increases.

B. factoring in the updated numbers, 428 billion gil divided among 500k subs would equal about 856k per person. However, The servers are heavily lopsided between legacy and non legacy, with estimates showing that legacy servers contain upwards of 75% of current available gil, for roughly 50% of the subs. so,
428 bil *.75 = 321 bil
500k * .5 = 250k subs

that adds up to the average player on a legacy server walking around with 1.284 mil gil in liquid assets. that would be counting everyone from level 1 to level 50 and endgame.
now lets factor in that if you aren't lvl 50, you aren't going to be running around with over a mil. we can honestly assume that.

same census has only an average of 25% of players are at lvl 50. so factor in about 80% of gil belongs to lvl 50 players, and you get 256.8 bil belonging to 62.5k characters.

so, for lvl 50 characters, 256.8 bil / 62.5k chars is 4.13 mil gil per lvl 50 on a legacy server. which is a lot closer to the mean price of a house.

of course that also means that for non legacy servers such as my beloved Jenova:
428 bil * .25 on non legacy = 107 bil on non legacy
80% held by lvl 50 = 85.6 bil
250k chars * .25 lvl 50 = 62.5k chars
85.6 bil / 62.5k chars = 1.37 mil gil per lvl 50 on non legacy

I know my server had housing valued at about 2 mil gil, which puts it at pretty close to right price.

Now, housing availability on the other hand...

10 of the 64 servers are legacy. if half the subs are on legacy servers that implies

30*8*3*10= 7200 housing plots available on legacy servers. for 62k players. when doubled for 2.4, that will be 14400 plots for 62k players. not nearly enough, hence the massive outcry, which is quite understandable.

that, compared to non legacy servers with:
30*8*3*54= 38880 plots for 62k players. with 2.4, double is 77.7k plots for 62k players, more than enough.

Legacy needs to be able to move out to non legacy servers to make numbers balance out!

These numbers do not account for FC money, or FC house spending. as these numbers are not available, adding them would be pure speculation.

Sorry for all the math at 7am guys, im at work and on like 4 cups of coffee.

TL;DR Money is closer than people think, but the issue with plot availability is apparent by numbers.