Increase the Penalty For Those Who Leave After Getting Loot

[Loody]

I think his point is more that, if you don't care what other people think, and are still very vocal about your opinions, people are inclined to take the same stance. Not caring what you think. You basically invite them to it.

Exactly. Thank you.

[Niamh_Rillemaugh]

If 8 people are rolling then the chance of winning is 12.5%, 5 people rolling is 20% chance of winning.

Thanks for playing, but I decided to do the math myself, since it looks like nobody else cares.

If everybody drew lots based on how many people could roll, the chances would definitely be 20% chance to win between 5 people and 12.5% chance to win between 8 characters. However, since everybody's rolling out of 100, the chances are not so simple.

Please keep in mind that I'm not dealing with ties, since I'm not sure how those are handled in the game (I don't think I've ever seen one either and it would be pretty rare anyway). I've been crossreferencing statistics sites that deal with dice rolls and chance, but I ultimately had to do the work myself, since the loot system is pretty unique (read as: nobody actually uses it in the real world).

Disclaimer: I don't do statistics and welcome any critique/corrections.

Hello and welcome to a crazy thing I decided to do using spreadsheets and too much time at work. Essentially, the question that arose earlier in this thread is whether or not your chances of lotting on the the Oil of Time, should it drop, is significantly affected by other people dropping out earlier in the raid. This is assuming that the only reason people would drop is if they already rolled successfully on another piece of loot, since it wouldn't affect your chances if somebody drops without getting their loot

What we do know about the loot system is that for need tier and greed tier, is that the winner is determined by the person who rolls highest in the group with a roll out of one hundred. I do not know whether a person can roll 100 (I've never seen it), but I do know people can roll as low as 1. A pass or inability to roll in the tier counts as a roll of 0. Since everybody can roll need on an Oil of Time, things are simplified somewhat: we only need worry about need tier chances.

Since we are essentially finding the chances of winning a die roll on a die with an extreme number of sides, there is no easy formula (that I know of) that we can just use and plug in values for an answer. So we'll do it the long way. We'll find out every possible way to win the roll.

Say we roll a 1. We know we won't be winning the OoT because everybody else will roll higher than us. So we can discount that roll.

Us     Them
1       1 1 1 1 1 1 1

In the event we roll a 2, there's only one possible way we could win the roll: If everybody else rolls a 2 (I know I assumed no ties, but bear with me).

Us     Them
2       1 1 1 1 1 1 1

When we roll a 3, things start to get more interesting: now there are 128 different ways we can win with 8 rolls, and 32 different ways we can win with 5.

Us     Them
3       1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3       1 1 1 1 1 1 2
3       1 1 1 1 1 2 1
3       1 1 1 1 1 2 2
...
3       2 2 2 2 2 2 1
3       2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Things are beginning to take a pattern. For every roll, there are a number of winning combinations equal to (r -1)^n-1, where r is the roll value and n is the number of rolls. If we sum this up among all rolls, We can find out the number of winning combinations for the die roll.

Essentially:

100
 ∑   (r -1)^n
r=2

This comes out to about 1.107*10^15 for 8 people rolling and 1.854*10^9 for 5 people rolling.

In order to find out the percent chance of a winning combination, we need to find out the number of total combination possible. Since we're rolling a 100 sided die 8 times for 8 people and 5 times for 5 people, the total number of combinations for scenario is 100^n.

So our formula for calculating the chance of winning an Oil of Time can be calculated as follows:

        100
100^n /  ∑   (r -1)^n
        r=2

tl;dr

The chances of winning a loot where everybody needs is as follows

8 people: 11.07%
5 people: 18.54%

You're squabbling over 7% chance. Go do hunts if you want an oil that badly.

(I did this because I was bored at work, hope this entertains somebody out there.)

[Buff_Archer]

Now I've heard it all, someone who leaves to give a new player a chance to enter and roll against the remaining party members who were there the whole time is altruistic? If I'm in a party as Bard and there's just 1 other Bard in the party, and over the course of ST they get what they want... and three DPS's drop because they did or didn't get what they wanted and by the final boss 3 Bards take their place, the people who dropped would have reduced my odds on getting a particular piece of Bard gear from 100% to 25%. What it comes down to is these people just don't give a damn about anyone else they're in the party with and if leaving early gives them a chance to do more Hunts or crafting or whatever, and that results in other party members who were there from the start running the entire instance and getting nothing from it because they lost a roll to their replacement, what do they care?

Letting new non-loot locked people in to roll against me midway through ST doesn't make someone courteous... the terms I'd use to describe such people would get me banned from this forum.

[NorthernLadMSP]

The main point I think some people are missing is this . . . Instances/raids/dungeons were meant to be completed. SE intended for people to queue for an instance and finish it, getting some kind of reward in the process. They did not intend for people to queue, get a reward for doing 1/4 of the instance and then ditch.

There is a reason why there's a penalty for leaving. Because it's not the intention of using Duty Finder. Yet, there's always people who go against the intended method and make up their own rules and expect everyone else to just get over it. Then those said people, come to threads like this and tell others that if someone asks/expects for you to finish the instance you queued for, that somehow we are the selfish ones in the situation.

This is very much the same reason they changed the Myth/dungeon set up. Because too many people were abusing the intended method of queueing for Brayflox hard mode (for example) to get their 50 Myth after the first two bosses and then ditching.

[Alistaire]

I would really like to see somebody actually figure out how players dropping affects your chances of rolling on an oil or UAT. I've seen a few threads like this, but as far as I've seen, nobody's come out and said "Yes, this is terrible behavior because it drastically reduces your chances," or "Actually, it hardly even matters since you're all rolling out of 100 anyway." That said, I'm terrible with statistics, so I have no real idea what the impact is.

Why not just a thread about the average amount of time to get an oil GUARANTEED from doing hunts vs the average time needed to win the lot on an oil from ST, 1/5 or 1/8. Mind blown @ doing ST specifically to get oils.

[Niamh_Rillemaugh]

Why not just a thread about the average amount of time to get an oil GUARANTEED from doing hunts vs the average time needed to win the lot on an oil from ST, 1/5 or 1/8. Mind blown @ doing ST specifically to get oils.

I don't roll on oils, I think it's a waste of a perfectly good way to gear alt classes. But I am curious. Besides, there are enough threads on how easy it is to get Sands and Oils through hunts as it is.

[Tridus1x]

Until you pay my sub, I can loot and leave as much as I want.

I don't see the problem with people getting what they want and moving on. Other players forcing players to do something they don't want to be a part of....well that seems rather selfish.

[Raxion]

Calm down. They're not jerks. They're not going out of their way to do anything malicious. Being able to only win one piece of gear per week, they simply just bow out when they get said weekly piece. Why do you think they should stick around for another 30+ minutes just so you have a better chance at winning the oil?

If SE wanted people to stick around until the end of ST, they'd increase the Soldiery reward to 75, instead of 15. That way, even if you won a piece of gear, it'd still be worth sticking it out until the end to get that nice chunk of Soldiery.

[maxthunder1]

I don't roll on oils, I think it's a waste of a perfectly good way to gear alt classes. But I am curious. Besides, there are enough threads on how easy it is to get Sands and Oils through hunts as it is.

You can get myth more easily than from the tower so whats the difference, other than in the tower you gotta wait till the next week to get another piece, and with myth you can do it in a day or 2 and have all the alts at ilvl 90.

[NorthernLadMSP]

If SE wanted people to stick around until the end of ST, they'd increase the Soldiery reward to 75, instead of 15. That way, even if you won a piece of gear, it'd still be worth sticking it out until the end to get that nice chunk of Soldiery.

You're so right. It was totally SE's intention for people to get their loot after Scylla and leave.