Increase the Penalty For Those Who Leave After Getting Loot

[Niamh_Rillemaugh]

I would really like to see somebody actually figure out how players dropping affects your chances of rolling on an oil or UAT. I've seen a few threads like this, but as far as I've seen, nobody's come out and said "Yes, this is terrible behavior because it drastically reduces your chances," or "Actually, it hardly even matters since you're all rolling out of 100 anyway." That said, I'm terrible with statistics, so I have no real idea what the impact is.

[CYoung187]

I would really like to see somebody actually figure out how players dropping affects your chances of rolling on an oil or UAT. I've seen a few threads like this, but as far as I've seen, nobody's come out and said "Yes, this is terrible behavior because it drastically reduces your chances," or "Actually, it hardly even matters since you're all rolling out of 100 anyway." That said, I'm terrible with statistics, so I have no real idea what the impact is.

If 8 people are rolling then the chance of winning is 12.5%, 5 people rolling is 20% chance of winning. It isn't huge but enough to annoy the hell out of someone that just did an hour run to lose to someone who has been there 10 mins. Saw one guy join in progress, get locked out of the Xande fight then win the oil. I wasn't rolling on the oil but a few others had to be frustrated.

[Niamh_Rillemaugh]

If 8 people are rolling then the chance of winning is 12.5%, 5 people rolling is 20% chance of winning.

Thanks for playing, but I decided to do the math myself, since it looks like nobody else cares.

If everybody drew lots based on how many people could roll, the chances would definitely be 20% chance to win between 5 people and 12.5% chance to win between 8 characters. However, since everybody's rolling out of 100, the chances are not so simple.

Please keep in mind that I'm not dealing with ties, since I'm not sure how those are handled in the game (I don't think I've ever seen one either and it would be pretty rare anyway). I've been crossreferencing statistics sites that deal with dice rolls and chance, but I ultimately had to do the work myself, since the loot system is pretty unique (read as: nobody actually uses it in the real world).

Disclaimer: I don't do statistics and welcome any critique/corrections.

Hello and welcome to a crazy thing I decided to do using spreadsheets and too much time at work. Essentially, the question that arose earlier in this thread is whether or not your chances of lotting on the the Oil of Time, should it drop, is significantly affected by other people dropping out earlier in the raid. This is assuming that the only reason people would drop is if they already rolled successfully on another piece of loot, since it wouldn't affect your chances if somebody drops without getting their loot

What we do know about the loot system is that for need tier and greed tier, is that the winner is determined by the person who rolls highest in the group with a roll out of one hundred. I do not know whether a person can roll 100 (I've never seen it), but I do know people can roll as low as 1. A pass or inability to roll in the tier counts as a roll of 0. Since everybody can roll need on an Oil of Time, things are simplified somewhat: we only need worry about need tier chances.

Since we are essentially finding the chances of winning a die roll on a die with an extreme number of sides, there is no easy formula (that I know of) that we can just use and plug in values for an answer. So we'll do it the long way. We'll find out every possible way to win the roll.

Say we roll a 1. We know we won't be winning the OoT because everybody else will roll higher than us. So we can discount that roll.

Us     Them
1       1 1 1 1 1 1 1

In the event we roll a 2, there's only one possible way we could win the roll: If everybody else rolls a 2 (I know I assumed no ties, but bear with me).

Us     Them
2       1 1 1 1 1 1 1

When we roll a 3, things start to get more interesting: now there are 128 different ways we can win with 8 rolls, and 32 different ways we can win with 5.

Us     Them
3       1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3       1 1 1 1 1 1 2
3       1 1 1 1 1 2 1
3       1 1 1 1 1 2 2
...
3       2 2 2 2 2 2 1
3       2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Things are beginning to take a pattern. For every roll, there are a number of winning combinations equal to (r -1)^n-1, where r is the roll value and n is the number of rolls. If we sum this up among all rolls, We can find out the number of winning combinations for the die roll.

Essentially:

100
 ∑   (r -1)^n
r=2

This comes out to about 1.107*10^15 for 8 people rolling and 1.854*10^9 for 5 people rolling.

In order to find out the percent chance of a winning combination, we need to find out the number of total combination possible. Since we're rolling a 100 sided die 8 times for 8 people and 5 times for 5 people, the total number of combinations for scenario is 100^n.

So our formula for calculating the chance of winning an Oil of Time can be calculated as follows:

        100
100^n /  ∑   (r -1)^n
        r=2

tl;dr

The chances of winning a loot where everybody needs is as follows

8 people: 11.07%
5 people: 18.54%

You're squabbling over 7% chance. Go do hunts if you want an oil that badly.

(I did this because I was bored at work, hope this entertains somebody out there.)

[NorthernLadMSP]

The main point I think some people are missing is this . . . Instances/raids/dungeons were meant to be completed. SE intended for people to queue for an instance and finish it, getting some kind of reward in the process. They did not intend for people to queue, get a reward for doing 1/4 of the instance and then ditch.

There is a reason why there's a penalty for leaving. Because it's not the intention of using Duty Finder. Yet, there's always people who go against the intended method and make up their own rules and expect everyone else to just get over it. Then those said people, come to threads like this and tell others that if someone asks/expects for you to finish the instance you queued for, that somehow we are the selfish ones in the situation.

This is very much the same reason they changed the Myth/dungeon set up. Because too many people were abusing the intended method of queueing for Brayflox hard mode (for example) to get their 50 Myth after the first two bosses and then ditching.

[CYoung187]

Thanks for playing, but I decided to do the math myself,


/snip rabble

)

You have over complicated a very simple statistical analysis. There are no ties or multiple wins. It does not matter if we are rolling out of 100, 1000, 10000000, or 10. Only one person can win in every scenario. If you are really bored please give me the analysis on how 2 + 2 does not equal 4. Show us how stupid we folk are.

Yes 7.5% is not a huge factor, it is still enough to frustrate a player.

[Ultimatecalibur]

In my understanding, some players believe the rewards for completion of the dungeon are insufficient compared to what can be gained in non-instanced content during the 30 minute penalty and so drop once they have gotten/failed to get the drop they seek rather than completing the dungeon. My question is what would be a sufficient reward for completion that would make those who would drop unwilling to do so?

[monochromicorn]

In my understanding, some players believe the rewards for completion of the dungeon are insufficient compared to what can be gained in non-instanced content during the 30 minute penalty and so drop once they have gotten/failed to get the drop they seek rather than completing the dungeon. My question is what would be a sufficient reward for completion that would make those who would drop unwilling to do so?

someone has already given a decent solution. up the soldiery reward. its a long dungeon, and aside from the 1 piece of loot, its not rewarding at all. someone suggested 75 soldiery upon completion. that might be a tad much, maybe 50. it outdoes thehunt, if you get the gear. on its own, it wouldnt be a practial way to cap on soldiery, as i could hunt and craft between said hunts, and cap sol, while ST would just be doing pointless fights. it would be more rewarding for people to finish, and it would be with the soldiery. some peoplke are still going to leave, but thats on them.

[Ultimatecalibur]

someone has already given a decent solution. up the soldiery reward. its a long dungeon, and aside from the 1 piece of loot, its not rewarding at all. someone suggested 75 soldiery upon completion. that might be a tad much, maybe 50. it outdoes thehunt, if you get the gear. on its own, it wouldnt be a practial way to cap on soldiery, as i could hunt and craft between said hunts, and cap sol, while ST would just be doing pointless fights. it would be more rewarding for people to finish, and it would be with the soldiery. some peoplke are still going to leave, but thats on them.

You get 45 soldiery from the current expert dungeons +35 more per day from the roulette bonus and an A Rank 17 target "cycle" gives 340 Soldiery. I doubt an increase in ST's Soldiery rewards would change anything due to how fast you can already cap soldiery. I was kind of hoping for someone to suggest some other rewards.

[Niamh_Rillemaugh]

It does not matter if we are rolling out of 100, 1000, 10000000, or 10.

And here is exactly why I didn't need your input. Tell me why that doesn't matter.

I'm pretty upfront about the fact that I'm not well versed in statistics, and I'm not doing the analysis to swing around some self-satisfaction in my math aptitude. I'm genuinely interested in what the difference is from a system where everybody draws lots and the longest stick wins.

Also, I explicitly said that I'm not dealing with ties because A) I wasn't sure if they existed in the system and B) I don't know how I'd take them out. It would change very little with the number of possible rolls anyway.

[Alistaire]

I would really like to see somebody actually figure out how players dropping affects your chances of rolling on an oil or UAT. I've seen a few threads like this, but as far as I've seen, nobody's come out and said "Yes, this is terrible behavior because it drastically reduces your chances," or "Actually, it hardly even matters since you're all rolling out of 100 anyway." That said, I'm terrible with statistics, so I have no real idea what the impact is.

Why not just a thread about the average amount of time to get an oil GUARANTEED from doing hunts vs the average time needed to win the lot on an oil from ST, 1/5 or 1/8. Mind blown @ doing ST specifically to get oils.