Quote Originally Posted by Krr View Post
Taking a random semi-high number given what we've seen in press releases regarding FFXIV, let's assume the active playerbase consists of around 500,000 people, being cautiously low and not having real numbers on hand. If the chance of something happening is 0.0041%, then on average, the 'statistical anomaly' will occur to 2,050 people, which is much more than the number of people I have seen posting on General Discussion.
No, the answer to that would be 20~21 people. Not thousands. And this is 500 fates, not the CRAZY thousands people claim. Let's claim that all 2 million players are actively subscribed, play English clients, attend the English forums regularly, and have attempted the atma quest with such tenacity that they do not give up before reaching their goal.

~82 people would do 500 fates before seeing an atma.