Quote Originally Posted by reality_check View Post
Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.
Probability is not statistics, and that's exactly where you're making the mistake here. What is likely to occur via probability does not necessitate what happens statistically. You're saying in your OP that people are likely exaggerating or otherwise not being truthful because their cases are unlikely to exist, but their cases already have either happened or have not happened - probability no longer has any relevance to the truth of their claims.

There's also the matter of the same probability predicting approximately three people out of every 200,000 to not get atma 1000 times in a row. If this probability does hold statistically, then how many of those people do you think might come to the forums to complain about it? This point is completely separate from what I was saying though, and is better explained by Kyros and others already.