RNG doesn't hate you

[Tsukino]

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

Probability is not statistics, and that's exactly where you're making the mistake here. What is likely to occur via probability does not necessitate what happens statistically. You're saying in your OP that people are likely exaggerating or otherwise not being truthful because their cases are unlikely to exist, but their cases already have either happened or have not happened - probability no longer has any relevance to the truth of their claims.

There's also the matter of the same probability predicting approximately three people out of every 200,000 to not get atma 1000 times in a row. If this probability does hold statistically, then how many of those people do you think might come to the forums to complain about it? This point is completely separate from what I was saying though, and is better explained by Kyros and others already.

[skaterger]

Probability is not statistics, and that's exactly where you're making the mistake here. What is likely to occur via probability does not necessitate what happens statistically. You're saying in your OP that people are likely exaggerating or otherwise not being truthful because their cases are unlikely to exist, but their cases already have either happened or have not happened - probability no longer has any relevance to the truth of their claims.

There's also the matter of the same probability predicting approximately three people out of every 200,000 to not get atma 1000 times in a row. If this probability does hold statistically, then how many of those people do you think might come to the forums to complain about it? This point is completely separate from what I was saying though, and is better explained by Kyros and others already.

Not really, The sample size the OP is basing his probability on is based on the assumption that people need to have actually completed all 1000 fates. In reality, not every person that plays the game has done atma, some are new players still levelling, some have no interest in it, some gave up way before hitting that 1000 mark and others like myself got it way before the 1000 fate mark. In actuality, the number of people who have even done 1000 fates for atma is probably quite low. So yes, its statistically possible to not have anyone not get an atma after 1000 fates.

Its pretty funny that you mention truth of the claims when it is well documented that many people have already got their atmas. Just inspect and check out the number of people walking around with them. What is more dubious is the numbers thrown out by some, 2000, 5000 10000 fates without seeing a drop. When there is no anecdotal nor pictoral evidence used to substantiate their claim, they won't even be considered as part of the sample size used to prove a hypothesis in an experiment.