RNG doesn't hate you

[Nutz]

Man, lots of people in this thread don't seem to understand RNG very well. The OP is pretty spot on with most of this, except, as Krr said, there are hundreds of thousands (if not more than a million) people playing, which allows for a lot of extreme outliers. It's just bad business to use a method like this. Sure it will have the desired effect for the majority of the population, but the system allows for people to get atmas first try in every zone (probably has never happend and said player certainly wouldn't complain) or for it to take an indefinite number of attempts (literally never going to finish). Given the size of the population, if something has a 1/1,000,000 (.0001%) chance of happening, it will likely happen to someone. If it's only a 0.01% chance of happening it's going to happen to 100 of the million people.

Even though it's statistically insignificant, it's going to make for a very bad experience for some of your players. As such, there should be caps where possible (ie. atmas can from FATES at X% chance and will definitely drop on the 50th FATE, reset counter at acquisition).

EDIT: also someone pointed out that people tend to notice bad results much more readily than good results (regardless of what might have been expected). This seems to happen very frequently in this game (or at least I notice it more in this game than anywhere else). I can't count the times a FC mate has complained that when gathering they'll miss repeatedly when the chance is 85%. I fell into the same trap for a time and then bothered to actually keep track for a bit and found that while I noted each miss with frustration, the far greater number of hits were just taken for granted and statistically it worked out as advertised.

[ariaandkia]

Man, lots of people in this thread don't seem to understand RNG very well. The OP is pretty spot on with most of this, except, as Krr said, there are hundreds of thousands (if not more than a million) people playing, which allows for a lot of extreme outliers. It's just bad business to use a method like this. Sure it will have the desired effect for the majority of the population, but the system allows for people to get atmas first try in every zone (probably has never happend and said player certainly wouldn't complain) or for it to take an indefinite number of attempts (literally never going to finish). Given the size of the population, if something has a 1/1,000,000 (.0001%) chance of happening, it will likely happen to someone. If it's only a 0.01% chance of happening it's going to happen to 100 of the million people.

Even though it's statistically insignificant, it's going to make for a very bad experience for some of your players. As such, there should be caps where possible (ie. atmas can from FATES at X% chance and will definitely drop on the 50th FATE, reset counter at acquisition).

I think I remember hearing someone mention that they only tried once per area. All I know is that they got their Atma super fast and I was like: how many fates did you run? And they were like, 'It wasn't bad, it was one fate per area."

Now, whether they are including fates they did outside of hunting for Atmas or if they were including all fates that they did while counting, I don't know.

===

I seriously wonder if people realize the thing about statistics and probabilities. Just because it isn't likely doesn't mean that it can't happen and doesn't mean that it won't happen.

As I said earlier, what is the chances of Earth forming and reaching the EXACT result it currently has including all the events leading up to it? And yet, Earth DID form and all the events on the Earth HAVE happened.

I mean, consider in the rarity of all the material in the earth, in the moon, and how expansive the known universe is. The chances of all those materials forming into earth in the location earth is at and so on. If you think about it, the chances are statistically impossible to have those EXACT things happen.

Also, the chances of me rolling a 1 on a 20 sided dice each time would be the same as me rolling a 1->20 in order or all 20s, or any other specific combination.

Just as an FYI.

[KarmaCha]

ITT: two or three people that have even a rudimentary understanding of probability

[Garlyle]

ITT: two or three people that have even a rudimentary understanding of probability

Honestly, probability is one of those things that I always see people having misconceptions about, whether in video games or outside of them. Wrapping your head around the possibility that something can exist without rhyme, pattern, or intention, is actually incredibly hard for people.

I'm getting over it, my boyfriend convinced me to give up, and that it was ruining our fun ingame once I realized how much time I had wasted a couple of days ago, we both got really frustrated and angry. We've settled on getting the other 110 weapons now.

Bruised ego aside, I'm glad you've made the decision to back out.

For the record: Don't try progressing Fishing 'past 50' either, I would recommend. While the rates are theoretically a lot higher, the entire thing is an adventure in RNG.

[swordrain]

Bruised ego aside, I'm glad you've made the decision to back out.

For the record: Don't try progressing Fishing 'past 50' either, I would recommend. While the rates are theoretically a lot higher, the entire thing is an adventure in RNG.

Sorry I'm not even sure what you are talking about. I'm planning on leveling all of my gathering classes next however, but I think 50 is a good place to stop for fishing. I have 4 characters with max fishing on WoW before I came to this game, so I'm pretty much ready for any grind you can imagine to get all my classes up. As long as I'm not dealing with RNG to get to the 50 mark, I think I'm good.

[Garlyle]

Sorry I'm not even sure what you are talking about. I'm planning on leveling all of my gathering classes next however, but I think 50 is a good place to stop for fishing. As long as I'm not dealing with RNG to get to the 50 mark, I think I'm good.

Getting to 50 is easy, and honestly kind of fun. RNG has very little to do with it - it can speed it up, but even the cases where you need to catch HQ fish or perform mooches (catch an HQ fish then use it as bait for a single cast right after) for class quests aren't that bad. If you get your HQ class gear when you hit 50, even the level 50 quest shouldn't take you more than an hour or two with bad luck to get the double mooch (I landed it in like five minutes). If you're really getting shafted for class quests, you can even just buy the fish in question from other players.

Once you get past 50, however, and have started melding, you need to pick up your gear upgrades past a certain point to continue 'progressing' the job. The Forager's Rod (the easier one) relies on collecting 20 HQ Silver Sovereigns. While I run into about 2-3 Sovereigns every half hour of fishing, whether they're HQ or not is entirely RNG, and while Perception helps, you can only really get so much of it. And these fish aren't tradeable - you have to fish them up yourself.

I find it enjoyable because I find fishing in general really enjoyable, but it's also very frustrating for a lot of people, and it's just ultimately RNG.

[swordrain]

snip

I'm not there yet, but thanks. I'm going to save this information to my leveling notes if that's okay. I'm more than happy to do gratuitous amounts of work for what I want, and when its REALLY bad its so much more satisfying to me to complete it. Having every class to 50, professions and everything, is one of those things I look forward to achieving

Right now I'm trying to get a really cool looking glamour that I can be proud of. I decided to get the gladiator level 100 set because I love the look (except for that silly helmet, I got sunglasses for that slot, those cool round morpheus ones). Now I just need to find an ultra cool looking sword and shield that will match. I got the shield, I think the 110 shield will look great. Although I'm really not a fan of the 110 sword...since I can't get my atma weapon, I guess it will have to do.