RNG doesn't hate you

[ariaandkia]

Pretty sure it was math'd out there that with 2% drop rate and the current playerbase on FFXI: Statistically, there should be around 40 players that will see 1000 fates without a single atma. If the RNG is true like they said, it means that there ARE people looking at this numbers out there.

See, this is the problem. Devs and RNG advocates only look at the macroscale effect of RNG. A true RNG has this effect where individuals can be subject to "extreme outliers". From a macroscale, looking at 1000 misses out of 1000000000000 is a very tiny number, but when those are subjected to a single individual, well, you get a shitty player experience. And true RNG allows that. Understanding of the concept or math behind this doesn't really make anyone feel better. You could be Erdős himself and you'll still call bullshit if you have that happen to you.

Is it the devs fault? Probably. The correct choice would have been to either subject the quest to something that is not 100% true RNG, or implement a RNG monitoring system to remove outliers (Smart RNG, basically). In the end, smart RNG doesnt affect % if you do it properly (Remove both good and bad outliers), and has the added benefit of making players happy.

In the end we get back to the same thing: Atma was lazy and poorly implemented, and the devs are trying to shift the blame to their "true RNG" system instead of realizing that its their fault True RNG is giving players the shaft.

Yeah, I've made a few games and I will say this: I hate "True" RNG. Instead, what I use is a Pseudo-Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

Essentially one of those works like this: Each thing that is supposed to happen at random has a say chance of happening. Say 1 out of 100.

So, then I have it set to 10 out of 1000. For each attempt that is done, one of the possibilities is removed. In other words, if you try 990 times and you don't get the chance to happen, your next 10 tries, it will happen. If you try 10 times in the first 10 tries of that set and all 10 happen, then your next 990 will fail.

This way, I still have the RNG factor, but at the same time, people end up seeing it happen that much of the time.

Another is this:

You have a chance of something happening each attempt. Say the start is 1%. After each attempt, the chance increases by 0.5% (the starting amount) until it happens. Then the chance is reset.

Generally this means that the actual chance is supposed to be higher. For example, something that is 10% chance might start as 1% chance with a 1% increase per failure. This means that eventually the % will hit 100% so eventually, it will succeed.

Those are just two examples.

I think you're watching too much anime

No, I've experienced it too many times.

Someone call Mulder and Scully bc this person is an X-File. I don't doubt you've found yourself unlucky, but that number is so improbable it is a statistical impossibility. There is no way you experienced something as rare as 100 to the 10 thousandth power. Literally every other anomaly known to man would happen at the same time before that would.

Again, I'm used to it. As one of my friends said to me: "The only reason you aren't dead is because you are the embodiment of everything that is wrong in the world and if you died, then there would be nothing wrong with the world anymore. Since that can't happen, you are still alive."

Think of it this way. What is the probability of Earth existing? Fairly unlikely for it to exist, but it exists anyways.

Also, statistical impossibility is only a statistical impossibility. It can still happen. As I mentioned earlier, due to how RNG works, if you hit a seed group that will always produce a failure, you could fail thousands of times in a row.