RNG doesn't hate you

[GalkaBikini]

Pro tip: You can't get atma if your inventory is full. Also, atma must be unlocked and your relic weapon must be equipped. Lastly, Atma does not drop in every zone. So get out of South Shroud. There, I fixed your atma grind for you.

This and more in my hardback cover book "How to play FFXIV", get yours now for only $49.99!

[swordrain]

snip

Okay I'm sorry...its just been really hard for me to accept this. I always do things 100% in everything, and I never surrender or give up on anything, even if it ends in utter failure. But I can't win against this RNG, and there's no way to "fail" either. I've done everything I can for months to downplay how much time and energy I've wasted in this, and I've had seriously depressing bouts of drinking and anger after having long weekends where I got all pumped up and was grinding for 15+ hour marathons, only to receive NOTHING. It's been a huge blow to my pride, my self esteem, and my personal time. Atma has basically given me PTSD for any RNG mechanics at all.

And then to come here, to see someone like the OP say, "that can't happen!" and call people like "me" ludicrous and liars is just so insulting and hurtful.

[KarmaCha]

Doesn't stop it from happening, lol.

What is the chance of me rolling a 1 on a 100 sided dice (1% chance to fail) OVER 10000 times in a row? Because the chances of that must be astronomically low, lol.

Someone call Mulder and Scully bc this person is an X-File. I don't doubt you've found yourself unlucky, but that number is so improbable it is a statistical impossibility. There is no way you experienced something as rare as 100 to the 10 thousandth power. Literally every other anomaly known to man would happen at the same time before that would.

[Krr]

And then to come here, to see someone like the OP say, "that can't happen!" and call people like "me" ludicrous and liars is just so insulting and hurtful.

Attempting to disprove lived experiences with numbers is the infamous realm of antisocial gamer jackasses. I'm sorry (and I mean it) that you had to put up with it.

Someone call Mulder and Scully bc this person is an X-File. I don't doubt you've found yourself unlucky, but that number is so improbable it is a statistical impossibility. There is no way you experienced something as rare as 100 to the 10 thousandth power. Literally every other anomaly known to man would happen at the same time before that would.

Technically with the number given of "two million players" there would be about 20 people who've experienced the "impossibility" listed in the OP on average.

[Tharian]

But wouldn't they use the same sort of algorithms to roll for the chance of a success/failure when the percentage is below 100%? I figure that each FATE/synth that is 99% and below/etc. is treated as an individual event and there's always a chance of 'failure' and that doing more synths or FATEs or whatever don't really make your chances any better.

No actually they wouldn't. Synthesis results need to take into account the different percentages involved. As such they algorithm will be modified depending on what the percentage for success actually is. FATE's involved in the search for Atma's on the other hand only have 2 relevant variables: 1.) Is a Zenith Weapon equipped? If yes, then proceed to variable 2, if no, then don't proceed. 2.) If yes, then is condition met that determines that Atma should be dropped? If yes, then drop Atma, if not, then don't. That is really all they needed to do in order to program the Atma hunt other than installing the conditions that would result in Atma's being dropped. And again, those conditions could be nearly anything.

That was a bit uncalled for. There is an in-game counter since there is an achievement for 3000 FATEs. You just need to check that every so often to know where you are at FATE-wise and since most people usually don't get to that achievement, it's an easy way to figure out how many FATEs you have done.

I honestly forgot about that counter. That said, I still think it rather odd for someone to purposely go out and perform 1000+ FATE's in a single weekend (or whatever that individuals time frame was) and not do anything else. So the question stands, though the reasoning behind it should probably changed to....

"You performed 1,000 FATE's in a 48 hour period? Do you have a life?"

[alimdia]

This is so true.

====




reality_check doesn't understand 'randomness.'

Also, if your luck is so bad that you are getting the worst of it, why would you buy a lottery ticket?

Ok, as I mentioned elsewhere, I have extremely bad luck.

1% chance of failure in a game, I failed over 10000 times. (Literally over 10000 because it was 1000 per attempt and I spent over 10m (Which, in that game, at the time, was a high tier player's earnings for a year.)

Once, just to prove how bad my luck was to my DM (dungeon master), I, without forcing a roll, rolled a 1 (worst possible result in this case) on a 20 sided dice 20 times in a row.
I say without forcing because it isn't hard to force the dice to roll a specific number. I don't do it because it is considered cheating.

I managed to get strangled until I was essentially dead (Brain was still alive, thankfully). I was hit by several cars, had several close encounters where I only survived because I dodged because I saw myself getting hit (look up LaPlace's Demon Theory if you want to understand a bit about how that works (Note: Just because people have proved that it isn't possible in the way it was written doesn't mean a derivative won't work)). I've fallen off a cliff (to be fair, I realized it was going to happen, I just couldn't stop it from happening so I was able to prepare for the fall slightly), been thrown out of a car on the highway, been poisoned more times than I can count, breathed in acidic mists, eaten things that should have killed me, etc. My entire life, I've lived with the world trying to kill me over and over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, tomorrow, while heading to work, I get hit by a car, probably thrown a few feet, and then get sent to the hospital again. Or the morgue. Then after a few hours, I'll be alive and well, almost fully healed, and get irritated by the fact that they need me to sign a bunch of paperwork. Again.

In fact, the fact that I'm alive should be impossible by statistics and 'probability'.

I'm the type of person who if a massive meteor was going to hit the earth, you could guess where it would land by finding out where I am. But I'd probably survive it just out of spite.

That is why I got the nickname "Cockroach" at one point. I refuse to die. >.> It is rumored that aside from my black hole of a stomach, if we had a [censored] war, there would be two survivors: ilydia and actual cockroach. Because you just can't kill them even when you do.

So in all honesty? Your idea of probability is really bad. You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen. Well, let me tell you what. Getting 12 ATMA in 14 hours? Also very unlikely. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unless you are a developer? Probably not.

On a 100 sided dice, what is your chances of rolling a 1 100 times in a row?

That chance is the same as rolling a 100 100 times in a row. Every possibility has the same chance of happening.

===

Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator. It should be PRNG. Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

But say you happen to hit a seed group that will ALWAYS produce a failure? You could potentially fail thousands upon thousands of times in a row.

I think you're watching too much anime

[ariaandkia]

Pretty sure it was math'd out there that with 2% drop rate and the current playerbase on FFXI: Statistically, there should be around 40 players that will see 1000 fates without a single atma. If the RNG is true like they said, it means that there ARE people looking at this numbers out there.

See, this is the problem. Devs and RNG advocates only look at the macroscale effect of RNG. A true RNG has this effect where individuals can be subject to "extreme outliers". From a macroscale, looking at 1000 misses out of 1000000000000 is a very tiny number, but when those are subjected to a single individual, well, you get a shitty player experience. And true RNG allows that. Understanding of the concept or math behind this doesn't really make anyone feel better. You could be Erdős himself and you'll still call bullshit if you have that happen to you.

Is it the devs fault? Probably. The correct choice would have been to either subject the quest to something that is not 100% true RNG, or implement a RNG monitoring system to remove outliers (Smart RNG, basically). In the end, smart RNG doesnt affect % if you do it properly (Remove both good and bad outliers), and has the added benefit of making players happy.

In the end we get back to the same thing: Atma was lazy and poorly implemented, and the devs are trying to shift the blame to their "true RNG" system instead of realizing that its their fault True RNG is giving players the shaft.

Yeah, I've made a few games and I will say this: I hate "True" RNG. Instead, what I use is a Pseudo-Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

Essentially one of those works like this: Each thing that is supposed to happen at random has a say chance of happening. Say 1 out of 100.

So, then I have it set to 10 out of 1000. For each attempt that is done, one of the possibilities is removed. In other words, if you try 990 times and you don't get the chance to happen, your next 10 tries, it will happen. If you try 10 times in the first 10 tries of that set and all 10 happen, then your next 990 will fail.

This way, I still have the RNG factor, but at the same time, people end up seeing it happen that much of the time.

Another is this:

You have a chance of something happening each attempt. Say the start is 1%. After each attempt, the chance increases by 0.5% (the starting amount) until it happens. Then the chance is reset.

Generally this means that the actual chance is supposed to be higher. For example, something that is 10% chance might start as 1% chance with a 1% increase per failure. This means that eventually the % will hit 100% so eventually, it will succeed.

Those are just two examples.

I think you're watching too much anime

No, I've experienced it too many times.

Someone call Mulder and Scully bc this person is an X-File. I don't doubt you've found yourself unlucky, but that number is so improbable it is a statistical impossibility. There is no way you experienced something as rare as 100 to the 10 thousandth power. Literally every other anomaly known to man would happen at the same time before that would.

Again, I'm used to it. As one of my friends said to me: "The only reason you aren't dead is because you are the embodiment of everything that is wrong in the world and if you died, then there would be nothing wrong with the world anymore. Since that can't happen, you are still alive."

Think of it this way. What is the probability of Earth existing? Fairly unlikely for it to exist, but it exists anyways.

Also, statistical impossibility is only a statistical impossibility. It can still happen. As I mentioned earlier, due to how RNG works, if you hit a seed group that will always produce a failure, you could fail thousands of times in a row.

[GalkaBikini]

I think you're watching too much anime

ROFL, I wanted to post this EXACT same thing

[KarmaCha]

Technically with the number given of "two million players" there would be about 20 people who've experienced this "impossibility" on average.

Write the number 100 on a piece of paper. Then put 20,000 zeros on the end of that. That would be the probability of failing something with a 1/100 chance 10,000 times in a row. 2 million is nowhere. Nowhere in the realm of possibility for that. But then again, you and I are referencing two different things.

[Krr]

i can't believe people in the "Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn" general forums are shittalking anime

Write the number 100 on a piece of paper. Then put 20,000 zeros on the end of that. That would be the probability of failing something with a 1/100 chance 10,000 times in a row. 2 million is nowhere. Nowhere in the realm of possibility for that. But then again, you and I are referencing two different things.

Yeah I took a step back and we're looking at entirely different scenarios, which is why I went back and re-edited in to specify the OP.

Still, inventing statistically impossible scenarios is somewhat silly because we are clearly dealing with statistically possible scenarios in this video game where you can in fact get a whole number by taking 0.00000018% out of the total number of active players.