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  1. #6
    Player
    ariaandkia's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    ilydia is Gridania's Macro Queen
    Posts
    266
    Character
    Ilydia Infinitum
    World
    Famfrit
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Tsukino View Post
    "Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.
    This is so true.

    ====
    Quote Originally Posted by reality_check View Post
    Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.


    reality_check doesn't understand 'randomness.'

    Also, if your luck is so bad that you are getting the worst of it, why would you buy a lottery ticket?

    Ok, as I mentioned elsewhere, I have extremely bad luck.

    1% chance of failure in a game, I failed over 10000 times. (Literally over 10000 because it was 1000 per attempt and I spent over 10m (Which, in that game, at the time, was a high tier player's earnings for a year.)

    Once, just to prove how bad my luck was to my DM (dungeon master), I, without forcing a roll, rolled a 1 (worst possible result in this case) on a 20 sided dice 20 times in a row.
    I say without forcing because it isn't hard to force the dice to roll a specific number. I don't do it because it is considered cheating.

    I managed to get strangled until I was essentially dead (Brain was still alive, thankfully). I was hit by several cars, had several close encounters where I only survived because I dodged because I saw myself getting hit (look up LaPlace's Demon Theory if you want to understand a bit about how that works (Note: Just because people have proved that it isn't possible in the way it was written doesn't mean a derivative won't work)). I've fallen off a cliff (to be fair, I realized it was going to happen, I just couldn't stop it from happening so I was able to prepare for the fall slightly), been thrown out of a car on the highway, been poisoned more times than I can count, breathed in acidic mists, eaten things that should have killed me, etc. My entire life, I've lived with the world trying to kill me over and over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, tomorrow, while heading to work, I get hit by a car, probably thrown a few feet, and then get sent to the hospital again. Or the morgue. Then after a few hours, I'll be alive and well, almost fully healed, and get irritated by the fact that they need me to sign a bunch of paperwork. Again.

    In fact, the fact that I'm alive should be impossible by statistics and 'probability'.

    I'm the type of person who if a massive meteor was going to hit the earth, you could guess where it would land by finding out where I am. But I'd probably survive it just out of spite.

    That is why I got the nickname "Cockroach" at one point. I refuse to die. >.> It is rumored that aside from my black hole of a stomach, if we had a [censored] war, there would be two survivors: ilydia and actual cockroach. Because you just can't kill them even when you do.

    So in all honesty? Your idea of probability is really bad. You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen. Well, let me tell you what. Getting 12 ATMA in 14 hours? Also very unlikely. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unless you are a developer? Probably not.

    On a 100 sided dice, what is your chances of rolling a 1 100 times in a row?

    That chance is the same as rolling a 100 100 times in a row. Every possibility has the same chance of happening.

    ===

    Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator. It should be PRNG. Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

    It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

    But say you happen to hit a seed group that will ALWAYS produce a failure? You could potentially fail thousands upon thousands of times in a row.
    (11)
    Last edited by ariaandkia; 08-29-2014 at 05:48 PM.
    The healer of love and justice! (Or the mad/insane/evil/berserk healer depending on who you talk to).
    I've played healers for so long that I can heal in my sleep literally (People have seen me do it).
    I like to do a bit of everything, but my preference is healing+support (until /that/ happens). FF14 title: Macro Queen