RNG doesn't hate you

[BobbinT]

hmmm....

In 1.0, I've done more than half year spamming Ifrit fight before I finally got my 1st Ifrit weapon, which sadly is an Ifrit Cane for CNJ/WHM.

There's also someone I know spamming this fight for more than a year and still not getting it.

But with King Mog's, I got my bow/axe/harpoon with around half effort (or even less) than that Ifrit's.

That's RNG for ya! lmao

[reality_check]

"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

[meJojo]

I got half my atmas in less than 5 fates. Atma of the goat however, took nearly 20 hours alone. I'm pretty sure it took me 700+ fates.

[ariaandkia]

"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.

This is so true.

====

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

reality_check doesn't understand 'randomness.'

Also, if your luck is so bad that you are getting the worst of it, why would you buy a lottery ticket?

Ok, as I mentioned elsewhere, I have extremely bad luck.

1% chance of failure in a game, I failed over 10000 times. (Literally over 10000 because it was 1000 per attempt and I spent over 10m (Which, in that game, at the time, was a high tier player's earnings for a year.)

Once, just to prove how bad my luck was to my DM (dungeon master), I, without forcing a roll, rolled a 1 (worst possible result in this case) on a 20 sided dice 20 times in a row.
I say without forcing because it isn't hard to force the dice to roll a specific number. I don't do it because it is considered cheating.

I managed to get strangled until I was essentially dead (Brain was still alive, thankfully). I was hit by several cars, had several close encounters where I only survived because I dodged because I saw myself getting hit (look up LaPlace's Demon Theory if you want to understand a bit about how that works (Note: Just because people have proved that it isn't possible in the way it was written doesn't mean a derivative won't work)). I've fallen off a cliff (to be fair, I realized it was going to happen, I just couldn't stop it from happening so I was able to prepare for the fall slightly), been thrown out of a car on the highway, been poisoned more times than I can count, breathed in acidic mists, eaten things that should have killed me, etc. My entire life, I've lived with the world trying to kill me over and over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, tomorrow, while heading to work, I get hit by a car, probably thrown a few feet, and then get sent to the hospital again. Or the morgue. Then after a few hours, I'll be alive and well, almost fully healed, and get irritated by the fact that they need me to sign a bunch of paperwork. Again.

In fact, the fact that I'm alive should be impossible by statistics and 'probability'.

I'm the type of person who if a massive meteor was going to hit the earth, you could guess where it would land by finding out where I am. But I'd probably survive it just out of spite.

That is why I got the nickname "Cockroach" at one point. I refuse to die. >.> It is rumored that aside from my black hole of a stomach, if we had a [censored] war, there would be two survivors: ilydia and actual cockroach. Because you just can't kill them even when you do.

So in all honesty? Your idea of probability is really bad. You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen. Well, let me tell you what. Getting 12 ATMA in 14 hours? Also very unlikely. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unless you are a developer? Probably not.

On a 100 sided dice, what is your chances of rolling a 1 100 times in a row?

That chance is the same as rolling a 100 100 times in a row. Every possibility has the same chance of happening.

===

Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator. It should be PRNG. Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

But say you happen to hit a seed group that will ALWAYS produce a failure? You could potentially fail thousands upon thousands of times in a row.

[reality_check]

You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen.

No, actually I never said that at all. I'm merely pointing out the math behind all of these people's ludicrous claims.

[Duelle]

Try to do something else? Start thinking 'I should be doing fates...today might be the day I finally get it'

And here's why I abhor mechanics that feed into gambler's fallacy.

I've never been fond of certain uses of RNG. According to the OP, I'm an improbability, which I am fine with. All this does is remind me of that one Earthbound playthrough where I ground 30+ levels killing Starman Supers for the 1/128 drop rate sword of kings. I kid you not, my party was lv85 when I actually got the sword to drop. Breezed through the rest of the game, to the point absorbing the power of the sound stone didn't give any level ups like it does in most playthroughs. Bad luck at its finest.

[Mahri]

RNG doesn't hate you.

Just as the unknowable Outer God Azathoth does not hate you.

It is a force of absolute randomness. Of chaos and change, of fecundity and entropy.

It knows not who you are, nor what you seek.

You are not at its mercy, for to be merciful one must acknowledge, which RNG, by it's very nature, cannot, for it is a blind, idiot god.

Such a force is incapable of hate, yet what a force it is!

[KarmaCha]

The odds of you rolling 20 1s in a row is 1 in 104,857,600,000,000,000,000,000,000.

[BobbinT]

oh btw...

in case of these atma farming from FATEs, it will be always 1% chance every time you do a FATE.

Have fun! XD

[Garlyle]

Its easy to sit there and yadda yadda yadda about how you know so much about being in a situation, but you aren't there, so you can't possibly know how terrible it feels t be in this situation. This system is BROKEN and needs to be completely redone. So you can shove your math. You can't possibly know how it really is for some of us.

See here's the thing about the RNG: It's random. It doesn't love you or hate you or love some people or hate some people. It literally doesn't care. It doesn't discriminate. It just rolls, again and again. The math's not wrong, and the system isn't 'fundamentally broken'.

I get that it sucks. But the RNG isn't actually to be held responsible - it does its job. If you want to argue for a variable drop rate for atmas however that steadily increases the drop chance after repeated failures, however, sure. That would help reduce - not eliminate, but reduce - outlier case frequencies that negatively impact players. Hell, I'll likely back you on that request.

It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

I think one thing that's important to note is functionally, it might as well be random. I highly, highly doubt that PRNG is seeded separately for each individual player - instead, the same 'queue' of PRNG-developped numbers is likely used all across the server, pulling every single time it's needed. The only way you'd ever be able to manipulate such a thing even slightly would be to be the only person online... which isn't going to happen, let's be realistic. It being a PRNG is merely an academic distinction, not a functional one.