Quote Originally Posted by Tsukino View Post
"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.
Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.