RNG doesn't hate you

[Tsukino]

I have a solid understanding of math, but I would never call myself a mathematician. Please explain how probability of consecutive events happening doesn't apply here.

"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.

[reality_check]

"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

[Tsukino]

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

Probability is not statistics, and that's exactly where you're making the mistake here. What is likely to occur via probability does not necessitate what happens statistically. You're saying in your OP that people are likely exaggerating or otherwise not being truthful because their cases are unlikely to exist, but their cases already have either happened or have not happened - probability no longer has any relevance to the truth of their claims.

There's also the matter of the same probability predicting approximately three people out of every 200,000 to not get atma 1000 times in a row. If this probability does hold statistically, then how many of those people do you think might come to the forums to complain about it? This point is completely separate from what I was saying though, and is better explained by Kyros and others already.

[skaterger]

Probability is not statistics, and that's exactly where you're making the mistake here. What is likely to occur via probability does not necessitate what happens statistically. You're saying in your OP that people are likely exaggerating or otherwise not being truthful because their cases are unlikely to exist, but their cases already have either happened or have not happened - probability no longer has any relevance to the truth of their claims.

There's also the matter of the same probability predicting approximately three people out of every 200,000 to not get atma 1000 times in a row. If this probability does hold statistically, then how many of those people do you think might come to the forums to complain about it? This point is completely separate from what I was saying though, and is better explained by Kyros and others already.

Not really, The sample size the OP is basing his probability on is based on the assumption that people need to have actually completed all 1000 fates. In reality, not every person that plays the game has done atma, some are new players still levelling, some have no interest in it, some gave up way before hitting that 1000 mark and others like myself got it way before the 1000 fate mark. In actuality, the number of people who have even done 1000 fates for atma is probably quite low. So yes, its statistically possible to not have anyone not get an atma after 1000 fates.

Its pretty funny that you mention truth of the claims when it is well documented that many people have already got their atmas. Just inspect and check out the number of people walking around with them. What is more dubious is the numbers thrown out by some, 2000, 5000 10000 fates without seeing a drop. When there is no anecdotal nor pictoral evidence used to substantiate their claim, they won't even be considered as part of the sample size used to prove a hypothesis in an experiment.

[ariaandkia]

"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.

This is so true.

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Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

reality_check doesn't understand 'randomness.'

Also, if your luck is so bad that you are getting the worst of it, why would you buy a lottery ticket?

Ok, as I mentioned elsewhere, I have extremely bad luck.

1% chance of failure in a game, I failed over 10000 times. (Literally over 10000 because it was 1000 per attempt and I spent over 10m (Which, in that game, at the time, was a high tier player's earnings for a year.)

Once, just to prove how bad my luck was to my DM (dungeon master), I, without forcing a roll, rolled a 1 (worst possible result in this case) on a 20 sided dice 20 times in a row.
I say without forcing because it isn't hard to force the dice to roll a specific number. I don't do it because it is considered cheating.

I managed to get strangled until I was essentially dead (Brain was still alive, thankfully). I was hit by several cars, had several close encounters where I only survived because I dodged because I saw myself getting hit (look up LaPlace's Demon Theory if you want to understand a bit about how that works (Note: Just because people have proved that it isn't possible in the way it was written doesn't mean a derivative won't work)). I've fallen off a cliff (to be fair, I realized it was going to happen, I just couldn't stop it from happening so I was able to prepare for the fall slightly), been thrown out of a car on the highway, been poisoned more times than I can count, breathed in acidic mists, eaten things that should have killed me, etc. My entire life, I've lived with the world trying to kill me over and over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, tomorrow, while heading to work, I get hit by a car, probably thrown a few feet, and then get sent to the hospital again. Or the morgue. Then after a few hours, I'll be alive and well, almost fully healed, and get irritated by the fact that they need me to sign a bunch of paperwork. Again.

In fact, the fact that I'm alive should be impossible by statistics and 'probability'.

I'm the type of person who if a massive meteor was going to hit the earth, you could guess where it would land by finding out where I am. But I'd probably survive it just out of spite.

That is why I got the nickname "Cockroach" at one point. I refuse to die. >.> It is rumored that aside from my black hole of a stomach, if we had a [censored] war, there would be two survivors: ilydia and actual cockroach. Because you just can't kill them even when you do.

So in all honesty? Your idea of probability is really bad. You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen. Well, let me tell you what. Getting 12 ATMA in 14 hours? Also very unlikely. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unless you are a developer? Probably not.

On a 100 sided dice, what is your chances of rolling a 1 100 times in a row?

That chance is the same as rolling a 100 100 times in a row. Every possibility has the same chance of happening.

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Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator. It should be PRNG. Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

But say you happen to hit a seed group that will ALWAYS produce a failure? You could potentially fail thousands upon thousands of times in a row.

[reality_check]

You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen.

No, actually I never said that at all. I'm merely pointing out the math behind all of these people's ludicrous claims.

[Garlyle]

If your reasoning is so great, and 1000 fates and 2 atmas is so impossible, explain why I'm at 900 and only have two?

If it's a 1/100,000 chance, keep in mind, there are 2+ million players. Statistical anomalies do happen.

Also, I'm sorry, but you need to calm down. As someone who started playing MMORPGs in the day when there were items with 1/10000 drop rates from mobs that spawned only once every 6+ hours (nevermind the times when you didn't find them) - I'm quite familiar with the frustration. It's unfortunate you've had this result, but you still need to calm yourself down.

[swordrain]

snip

Okay I'm sorry...its just been really hard for me to accept this. I always do things 100% in everything, and I never surrender or give up on anything, even if it ends in utter failure. But I can't win against this RNG, and there's no way to "fail" either. I've done everything I can for months to downplay how much time and energy I've wasted in this, and I've had seriously depressing bouts of drinking and anger after having long weekends where I got all pumped up and was grinding for 15+ hour marathons, only to receive NOTHING. It's been a huge blow to my pride, my self esteem, and my personal time. Atma has basically given me PTSD for any RNG mechanics at all.

And then to come here, to see someone like the OP say, "that can't happen!" and call people like "me" ludicrous and liars is just so insulting and hurtful.

[Krr]

And then to come here, to see someone like the OP say, "that can't happen!" and call people like "me" ludicrous and liars is just so insulting and hurtful.

Attempting to disprove lived experiences with numbers is the infamous realm of antisocial gamer jackasses. I'm sorry (and I mean it) that you had to put up with it.

Someone call Mulder and Scully bc this person is an X-File. I don't doubt you've found yourself unlucky, but that number is so improbable it is a statistical impossibility. There is no way you experienced something as rare as 100 to the 10 thousandth power. Literally every other anomaly known to man would happen at the same time before that would.

Technically with the number given of "two million players" there would be about 20 people who've experienced the "impossibility" listed in the OP on average.

[KarmaCha]

Technically with the number given of "two million players" there would be about 20 people who've experienced this "impossibility" on average.

Write the number 100 on a piece of paper. Then put 20,000 zeros on the end of that. That would be the probability of failing something with a 1/100 chance 10,000 times in a row. 2 million is nowhere. Nowhere in the realm of possibility for that. But then again, you and I are referencing two different things.