Synthesis Guide Part 2 Done (with link)

[Aeyis]

I've noticed that in regards to risk the guide mentions that it increases over time, might i ask how accurate your sources are on this?
In my experience risk has a set value for any given time you start a synch (albeit one randomly? decided)
that doesnt actually increase at all.

When i synch a high success rate item the ones that go bad always go bad from the start (considering random luck) rather then after 70%~, in fact ive managed to save a few of those after 70% due to getting lucky.

[twinkles]

Hey Aeyis,

Its actually pretty easy to gauge risk as an outcome of "bad actions". Easiest way to generate risk is by "careful" spam failures. Orb sparking mid synthesis is a pretty good measure of high risk and the best way to see that is by chaining careful spams or other high risk actions. Granted its impossible to gauge risk as a value (which i do mention) but i'm certain that risk is both rng value placed at the beginning of a synthesis and a value that increases as a synthesis progresses.

As you focus on high quality driven crafting more, it becomes more obvious that quality pushes = risk, with the only exception i have found being perfection pushes. Perfection seems to generate little to no risk, and actually i have found perfection stabilizes things in the same way ingenuity does.

[Aeyis]

Well the thing is, i almost never get sparking on the things i craft, regardless of going for quality or doing a standard.
Unstables are a different matter tho.

If i botch something which i should have an extremely high chance of succesfully making, the sparking doesnt happen suddenly somewhere in my crafting.
It happens after i blow up several standard or bolds (usually at the very start).
Seems more like sparking is a result of ignoring your high risk, and getting a penalty because of it.

An the opposite end with the same item in the same batch, ive had crafts where i got much lower dura loss even on fails, resulting in a high ending dura without even trying.

From what i can tell risk kind of effects the odds of getting a success instead of a crit success, or a crit fail instead of a fail.

In hundreds of crafts i dont think ive even once seen a noticable increase in the rates of those during crafting,
baring unstable elements and sparking.