Let's talk about Hunts - a detailed rundown of their assumed mechanics

[Vandesaan]

I'm not going to comment on Flame Arrow in Garlok's lair but we've had too many people, even in this thread, who press minion roulette on the spawn locations and have it pop instantly. I'd sooner believe that these "maintenance spawns" were isolated incidents. Either
A) The people claim they were alone in the zone(with no /sea screenshots) and they really werent.
B) It spawned just before the server went down due to mining bots who keep minions out in or to look legit, etc
C) It spawned during maintenance for an unidentifiable reason, yet unrelated to time.
D) It spawned when maintenance ended as players/chocobos/minions entered the zone. (It is probably not possible to prove Nandi may spawn via character models entering its spawn location)

The only reason I have such a firm belief in it after seeing it happen and getting so many reports of it is because we believe in there being S rank "pairs".

Fishing: Thousand-cast Theda and Zona Seeker
Gathering: Bonnacon and Croque-Mitaine
Player action (food/maps): Brontes and Agrippa
Death and/or near death: Safat and Mahisha
Moon phases: Mindflayer and Croakadile
Singled out with the weather: Laideronnette

Then there's the questionable remaining 6
FATEs(?): Wulgaru and Nunyunuwi
Item acquisition/leves(?): Minhocao and Lampalagua
Timer based(?): Garlok and Nandi

[Kiara]

FATEs(?): Wulgaru and Nunyunuwi
Timer based(?): Garlok and Nandi

Hi Vandes and All,

Perhaps SE has another layer (sub-system) besides the Spawn Condition, that might force spawn an S if it hasn't appeared after a while (just to give the players something to do)?

I still think that regardless of Spawn Condition, there's still the RNG aspect: So even if players got the Spawn Condition (Trigger) correct, it wouldn't just be set at 100%.

Look at Brontes - I know some JP players who went through over 1,200 Eggs (and other foods) during the supposed open window (we had full LS's doing this) and nothing. And then seemingly randomly, a day later, it spawns (w/ other people eating food).

Looking at other systems in the game, it's the same w/ SE and their "RNG / Rolls": I've had 95% Chance to Gather some items, and I missed 3 Times in a Row (this has happened a few times). (>_>)

And I've also had 5% Chance to HQ and HQ'd something 4 (FOUR) Times in a Row. LOL. Sigh.

Just saying that there's a real possibility RNG / Roll Chance to Spawn also throws a wrench into everyone's investigation into Spawn Conditions. You might've gotten the right Spawn Condition, but RNG Roll wasn't in your favor. Then... [X Duration / Window Closed to "Roll" Again to Spawn] and then it checks again.

[Ogun_Riastradh]

Hi Vandes and All,

Vandes has written that this may be the case, or it could just be that a certain threshhold needs to be met. That's why sometimes you can catch one Glimmerscale and see Xona, while other times it could take 20. That is why you repeatedly test these ideas to confirm the theory and eliminate RNG as a factor. If you are consistently seeing extremes, i.e. 1 egg or 1,200 eggs for Brontes, it's probably something more than RNG. There is likely something else that needs to be considered, such as it can't be 1 person eating 1,200 eggs or it has to be a new food effect instead of spam eating with buff still up.

[Alukah]

Correct. Garlok and Nandi are both timers uncontrolled by us. I've been telling people that way before the server maintenance proof -- even though nobody believed me until that happened -.-

The thing is, you cannot ensure you were the first person to spawn in that map, someone else in any corner of the map could have logged in before you with a minion or companion out. Garlok is very likely to work under automatic spawn, but for Nandi I really doubt it.

Garlok doesnt matter with weather change, or rut fate, itsall about the fire arrow on garloks lair.... i walked to his lair earlier, fire arrow'd turned around and bam he was infront of me

That one has been tested enough times to be confirmed as incorrect, it's not even in the original JP text, plus so far no S rank has a class or race requirement in order to spawn. Coincidences happen and that's the reason why Nuny cannot be narrowed down yet.

Hi Vandes and All,

Perhaps SE has another layer (sub-system) besides the Spawn Condition, that might force spawn an S if it hasn't appeared after a while (just to give the players something to do)?

I don't think so, I've seen Nunyunuwi pop shortly after window, I've seen it go days without any sightings, Nunyunuwi seems to be player controlled.

I still think that regardless of Spawn Condition, there's still the RNG aspect: So even if players got the Spawn Condition (Trigger) correct, it wouldn't just be set at 100%.

Look at Brontes - I know some JP players who went through over 1,200 Eggs (and other foods) during the supposed open window (we had full LS's doing this) and nothing. And then seemingly randomly, a day later, it spawns (w/ other people eating food).

Looking at other systems in the game, it's the same w/ SE and their "RNG / Rolls": I've had 95% Chance to Gather some items, and I missed 3 Times in a Row (this has happened a few times). (>_>)

And I've also had 5% Chance to HQ and HQ'd something 4 (FOUR) Times in a Row. LOL. Sigh.

Just saying that there's a real possibility RNG / Roll Chance to Spawn also throws a wrench into everyone's investigation into Spawn Conditions. You might've gotten the right Spawn Condition, but RNG Roll wasn't in your favor. Then... [X Duration / Window Closed to "Roll" Again to Spawn] and then it checks again.

This is pretty much a proven fact now, the chance is never 100%, like the OP says it's either a random chance or a quota must be met.

Vandes has written that this may be the case, or it could just be that a certain threshhold needs to be met. That's why sometimes you can catch one Glimmerscale and see Xona, while other times it could take 20. That is why you repeatedly test these ideas to confirm the theory and eliminate RNG as a factor. If you are consistently seeing extremes, i.e. 1 egg or 1,200 eggs for Brontes, it's probably something more than RNG. There is likely something else that needs to be considered, such as it can't be 1 person eating 1,200 eggs or it has to be a new food effect instead of spam eating with buff still up.

That also makes sense, a system that requires a certain amount of people trying on top of a threshold/chance to spawn.

[Ogun_Riastradh]

The only reason I have such a firm belief in it after seeing it happen and getting so many reports of it is because we believe in there being S rank "pairs".
Singled out with the weather: Laideronnette
Timer based(?): Garlok and Nandi

I agree with you that based on the "soft" maintenance pops, that essentially proves that Garlok and Nandi aren't player interaction based. However, that would also leave game environment in addition to timer as remaining possibilities. For whatever the hunter-scholar clues are worth, one of the Garlok hints relates that he sleeps when it rains. Couldn't that suggest that he could be the opposite/pair of Laideronnette? Instead of being double rain it could be double clear/fair (since for vistas they made clear/fair more or less equivalent), which seems to happen more than a double rain scenario.

Also, have we established if there is a force pop situation for any of the S ranks (if that is even possible)?

[Vandesaan]

RNG

There is definitely a "chance to spawn" for the S ranks when a trigger happens. And I don't think that chance goes on a server-wide cooldown after it's been done once, because I've seen people catch Judgerays for the full duration of the spawn window of Thousand-Cast Theda, only to have someone's final catch at 09:03PM server time finally spawn it. Now, for Brontes, I can't say either for or against that just spamming the food is preventing something. Maybe it's the new acquisition of a food buff? Maybe it's a short cooldown per person? Sadly there's no way to test this and get verification.

Weather twin

Force pop

As mentioned on our teamspeak before, I had gone through my weather data collection to look for Garlok's association with the weather and try figuring out of there's a pattern. I could not find one. I continually am looking for these associations for all the S ranks though as I am collecting every single weather change for every single zone and have been doing so for three weeks, coming up on finishing a fourth.

As for force pops, this seems unlikely. No way can it be possible for servers to not have seen Brontes for 6+ weeks, only to have him show up after the steak theory was published and they tried eating food for him. I saw a screenshot of 70+ people getting Seasoned Tracker all at once.

Nandi

Try to prove it wrong. Actively tell people to not do the minion thing. Nandis longest recorded delay from his respawn of 48 hours is 8 hours 37 minutes. Meaning he spawned at 56 hours 37 minutes from the last time he was killed. If you can get that to go any further, minion theory might be proven. After 8 hours had passed beyond the respawn, said server started to spam minions in their impatience. Meanwhile Excalibur has non-stop been spamming minions previously and seen him last all the way to 8 hours 16 minutes. Make it go further. 9 hours. 10 hours.

[Steve_UK]

As for force pops, this seems unlikely. No way can it be possible for servers to not have seen Brontes for 6+ weeks, only to have him show up after the steak theory was published and they tried eating food for him. I saw a screenshot of 70+ people getting Seasoned Tracker all at once.
Try to prove it wrong. Actively tell people to not do the minion thing. Nandis longest recorded delay from his respawn of 48 hours is 8 hours 37 minutes. Meaning he spawned at 56 hours 37 minutes from the last time he was killed. If you can get that to go any further, minion theory might be disproven.

Brontes has to have i believe 4 sandstorm's before he can spawn (i believe) or it's just spamming food in the location of the A rank spots. the HQ food is a myth as i've spawned him the last 5 times on our server, with just normal food.

You just have to eat where the A rank's can spawn - and little and behold, brontes can spawn.

[Vandesaan]

Brontes has to have i believe 4 sandstorm's before he can spawn (i believe) or it's just spamming food in the location of the A rank spots. the HQ food is a myth as i've spawned him the last 5 times on our server, with just normal food.

You just have to eat where the A rank's can spawn - and little and behold, brontes can spawn.

Are you asking me to check it or is this something you've observed? And yes, we know that HQ food matters none. Just any food. Not sure why you're bothering to type this out?

Hunt target: Brontes
Spawn condition: Believed to be linked to consumption of any food in the zone. Even food you buy from vendors. Each time food is consumed, a threshold is either slowly being fulfilled or there is a chance of a spawn happening.

[Ogun_Riastradh]

Brontes has to have i believe 4 sandstorm's before he can spawn (i believe) or it's just spamming food in the location of the A rank spots. the HQ food is a myth as i've spawned him the last 5 times on our server, with just normal food.

You just have to eat where the A rank's can spawn - and little and behold, brontes can spawn.

The phrase is "Lo and behold". Also, where is your data to show that these random circumstances have anything to do with the pop conditions?