I think main problem for people crying in forums about unfair success rate for any drop/craft or anything else they have failed and then offering their calculations is concentrating on wrong things. You more or less can't beat machine on math - so instead you should try to observe machine's work and notice little things that can help you. Atma CAN be got fast with all the randomness and crafting has a pattern not so related to success % to get HQ. Instead of writing down numbers and trying to make calculations that usually are false anyway just try to feking watch and learn - there are things and actions that does matter towards chance of success based of if and when you use or don't use them.