A Random Comment

[Felessan]

Item Synthesis? -20
Materia Melding? -40
Atma Drop? -60

There is no adjustment for any of listed activities, it's just a negative experience overwhelms positive one by significant margin. A number of example here show RNG in FF14 are "fair" and no adjustments made.
I got mine atma in 18 hours, I was interested in this back at the peak time for atma farm so I gathered some statistics from all my friends, fc and lses just how fast people getting atma - and average was around 15 hours. Yes, there are always outliers who got it after a very long time, but there are also people who got it in less than 4-6 hours (and I really *hated* them when I spent 7 hours just to get one atma). People bragged how they got 3 atma in 20 minutes and I wanted to kill them for that.
The same with materia melding/synthesys. I craft for sale and I crafted already items in ten thousands and see no divergence from "fair" distribution of NQ/HQ.
You can't just rely on your memory to make a proper conclusion about your own luck - you need a proper track somewhere else. Because in your mind failures and successes written differently, the failures of the same amplitude given twice the weight of successes. And when you try to "average" based on you memory, you'll always get a "i'm unlucky" feeling on a long streak of events.

I think by that point it's closer to 1 unit. Or negative units... as the person realizes "One down, eleven more to go... for my first Atma weapon."

You can change "happiness" to "excitement", and a lot of people do get excited after finally getting sneaky atma they went for hours.

[Adler]

I think main problem for people crying in forums about unfair success rate for any drop/craft or anything else they have failed and then offering their calculations is concentrating on wrong things. You more or less can't beat machine on math - so instead you should try to observe machine's work and notice little things that can help you. Atma CAN be got fast with all the randomness and crafting has a pattern not so related to success % to get HQ. Instead of writing down numbers and trying to make calculations that usually are false anyway just try to feking watch and learn - there are things and actions that does matter towards chance of success based of if and when you use or don't use them.