I appreciate the dev reply but well, I don't understand it still, I guess.
RNG relating to spiritbond results, because I do a lot of that, I can see it's more or less even result over a great many results.
But relating to other things, it doesn't feel like that. I'm aware of cognitive bias, that part I did understand.
A few days ago I failed ~12 infusions in a row on my Det IV sphere scroll.
A few days before that, first overmeld at 29%, this

I mean, it was expected to some extent that there would be failure.
and I suppose it might be part of my bias that I notice it more because Det IV are really kinda expensive
but it just feels like the listed %s don't match up with the results at all?
The most striking example I can remember quite clearly:
I basic synthed an ingot at 2% HQ chance and it became HQ. When crafting the result, I only reached 98% HQ and it became NQ, back to back.