Quote Originally Posted by Tiggy View Post
You are falling prey to the very fallacies they listed, and then act like success conditions when probability is low never happen at all when they most certainly do. I recently desynthed 72 silver sovereigns starting at a 40% success rate and I most certainly did succeed a decent amount of the time. I didn't check the statistics of my end results but 40% felt pretty accurate at the start.
Agreeing wholeheartedly with this. I recently reached mastery in botany and have been picking up Shroud tea leaves for my Builder of the Realm friend. On more than one occasion, with a 96% gather and 11% HQ rate, I've come away with no less than THREE high-quality bunches. Even factoring in the 100% on Chain 4 skill, that's two high-quality gathers on a .96*.11=10.56% chance for each, out of only five gathers. I've also had a fair number of triple-gathers on fragrant logs, even though the highest I can pump my HQ rate on those is 15%.