So, looking at that HW->SB gap, desynths at 10 dSkill above the rlvl gives about 0.60 exp (for GSM). Success rate is 80% at dSkill = rlvl, going up about 3.2% per dSkill above the rlvl and hitting 100% at 7 dSkill above the rlvl (99.2% at 6 above). dSkill gains start dropping off at that point, but I don't have enough data yet to say how fast. There are items at that point every 25 rlvls (180 -> 205 -> 230 -> 255). Chance at 15 dSkill below the rlvl should be 56% (35*1.6). Chance at 10 dSkill below the rlvl should be 64% (40*1.6). I don't have enough data for the exp gains at these points though.
The best point to switch to the next tier of gear in that gap appears to be between 10 and 15 dSkill above the rlvl. I'm leaning toward 15, but I could easily be wrong. Of course, this also depends on how you play FFXIV - if you do tons of PvP, obviously it's better to stick with the 205 pvp gear longer before switching to the 230 poetics gear. If you don't much care for PvP, you'd want to switch sooner. Also, prices differ on PvP gear based on the item type, while all poetics gear is the same price (I think? I could be wrong there, can't check right now). So:
Generic recommendations for all classes:
- dSkill 165 - 195 = i180 PvP gear
- dSkill 190 - 220 = i205 PvP gear
- dSkill 215 - 245 = i230 Poetics gear
- dSkill 240 - 270 = r255 crafted gear (which can be bought from vendors/MB)
Does that sound wrong to anyone? My suggestions may be biased/informed by the fact that I'm leveling the classes that have the cheapest item types in the game (LTW - belts, GSM - accessories). Other classes have more expensive wolf mark options, but theoretically gain exp faster with the 4.0 changes to desynth. ARM seems to have a nice boost over LTW/GSM, for instance, from what others have posted. I don't know about the really hard ones to level (CRP/ALC).
Oh, and as a total sidenote, because Zelkova logs are used to make Zelkova lumber for SBing by people going for VI craft materia, people are practically giving the lumber away on Faerie. Varnish is cheap to make too (MB prices on Faerie at least are crazy for it, but it takes like no time at all to gather the mats personally). This makes Zelkova Rings amazing for CRP desynth from dSkill ~275 through ~310. You can craft the rings for like, under 1,000 gil each, and that keeps slowly dropping. It's insane, especially if CRP has a large exp bonus for having a smaller selection of desynthable items.