Desynthesis Endgame Guide

[Keldion]

So, looking at that HW->SB gap, desynths at 10 dSkill above the rlvl gives about 0.60 exp (for GSM). Success rate is 80% at dSkill = rlvl, going up about 3.2% per dSkill above the rlvl and hitting 100% at 7 dSkill above the rlvl (99.2% at 6 above). dSkill gains start dropping off at that point, but I don't have enough data yet to say how fast. There are items at that point every 25 rlvls (180 -> 205 -> 230 -> 255). Chance at 15 dSkill below the rlvl should be 56% (35*1.6). Chance at 10 dSkill below the rlvl should be 64% (40*1.6). I don't have enough data for the exp gains at these points though.

I'm working to gather information on the exact desynth chances in the current patch iteration, and so far have observed the following.

dSkill = rlvl - 43 : 9.8%
dSkill = rlvl - 20 : 42.0
dSkill = rlvl - 19 : 43.4
dSkill = rlvl - 18 : 44.8
dSkill = rlvl - 7 : 60.2

The trend appears to weigh each full point of dSkill at 1.4% until (rlvl -5), when I expect the formula to leap from 63 to 80%.
With exactly 279 LTW desynthesis skill, the chance of success to desynth a Tigerskin Belt of Gathering (rlvl 279) is 70%. Thus, the base chance of success likely depends on the item's rlvl.

At some point, careful desynthesis and materia bonuses were modified. Each point of careful desynthesis (from Tinker's Calm and Bacon Broth) raises the success chance by 3.5%, while every melded materia raises your success rate by 7%.