Quote Originally Posted by Torquere View Post
Does anyone else think that the Success Rate is buggy? Personally, no matter what I do in this game, including desynth, it seems that with a 78% success rate I have a 78% fail rate.
As I posted in another thread, a lot of that is observation bias. The rest of it is a bad RNG that sometimes runs in streaks. Looking at it longer term, I found the success rates of melding to be pretty accurate. Sure, there were times I'd fail 36 times in a row to meld something with a 11% chance, or 11 times in a row to meld something with a 45% chance, but at the same time, I had plenty of times I pentamelded all materia on an item with zero failures on any of it. The thing is, you don't notice the positive streaks as much as you notice the negative streaks.

Does this mean that if you're failing a lot, you should stop and do something else? Maybe, I'm not that great at statistics, but the RNG does tend to clump more than it should. In the long term, it all evens out anyway.

All that said, I haven't kept track with desynth to see if it has the same problem, and it's not just a misrepresentation of the probability of success. I'll try keeping track in the future to see what happens.