2.3 New Crafting Accessories Materia Stat Caps

[Krafty]

Finished melding my Rose Gold Choker to the state caps this morning. Had a bit of luck on a couple melds and figured I'd throw it on the market to see if I can make a nice little profit given how high the crafting materia prices are right now and the fact that I mainly melded from my own materia cache. The chokers are selling slowly for around 350g on my server.

Does 2M seem like a good price for full melded rose gold choker? I'm trying to price it in a spot where someone's got to pay me a decent mark up to avoid the melding hassle since I'll just hang onto it if I can't make a tidy little profit.

[Nyalia]

Does 2M seem like a good price for full melded rose gold choker? I'm trying to price it in a spot where someone's got to pay me a decent mark up to avoid the melding hassle since I'll just hang onto it if I can't make a tidy little profit.

I have no idea what your server prices are like, but calculate out the average cost to meld it to max caps. To do that, take the percent chance of failure and multiply it by the currently selling price of the materia for that slot. Once you have the total, add 50%-100% and sell it for that much. Anyone who claims that's overpricing has not max melded enough equipment. It can easily cost more than that to make if you get unlucky with your melds.

[Krafty]

Thanks. I like calculating using the averages.

Sold for 1.6M. I figure I was into it for about 800k, so ended up getting around the 100% figure you referenced on what I actually would have had to spend. Given the fact that I got lucky on a couple melds, albeit cheaper ones, the price was probably closer to 50% increase over the cost based upon averaging.

Now I'm a little nervous that I have to do it all over again for my own choker. :P

[Nyalia]

Now I'm a little nervous that I have to do it all over again for my own choker. :P

Either keep track of how much money you spend so you can kick yourself if you spend over 1.6m, or don't keep track and convince yourself that you spent way less than that

[AttacKat]

Given the fact that I got lucky on a couple melds, albeit cheaper ones

Did two 3rd tier overmeld yesterday at 13%, materia costing around 30K each. First item had 25 fails, so I gave up. Second item melded on the 3rd try. You go figure how that 13% charms in.

Same with Desyn, 83% success, and 5 fails on 10 tries.

jc

[Nyalia]

Same with Desyn, 83% success, and 5 fails on 10 tries.

Please be aware of Observation Bias. Have you ever succeeded with 5 out of 10 tries with a 17% chance for each? If you had, would you think anything of it, vs failing 5 out of 10 tries with an 83% chance? To do a fair evaluation of the RNG the game uses, you have to look at large amounts of data, and record everything, not just the negative outliers. When I did this, I found the RNG actually favored me overall. Expected cost of all crafter melds: 13m. Actual value of materia used: 12m. But, I still failed a 35% chance 9 times, a 24% chance 11 times, an 11% chance 34 times, and a 14% chance 22 times.

Looking at my data for my meld success/failures, even with the crazy outliers, when averaged out, most success rates are really close to what I got.
Total attempts done to get 11 successes at 13-14%: 77.
Expected number of attempts to get 11 successes at 13.5%: 11/.135 = 81.5.

Total attempts done to get 14 successes with a 24% chance: 56.
Expected number of attempts to get 14 successes at 24%: 14/.24 = 58.3

[Krafty]

Just to show that things can go the other way, I fully melded my Dodore Belt last night. It went as such:

Command IV: 1/1 (100%)
Cunning III: 1/1 (35%)
Competence III: 1/5 (19%)
Command I: 1/1 (12%)

I was wise enough to hang onto this one.