I have farmed 150 total ATMA and Alexendrite drops. While I was farming them, I collected various data in hopes of spotting patterns that could point to some sort of contributing factor to what is, at its core, an RNG mechanic.

I will be sharing the data over the next week on my lodestone blog.
The first set of data is up now.

The Zodiac Braves Theory - Data recorded with Final Fantasy Tactics in mind.
http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodest.../blog/1384627/

Thanks! Good luck everyone.

Oh - I don't come to the forums often so I won't be responding to any comments here quickly, but I reply to my blog fast if you comment there.