1% drop rates... a thought expriment.

[ToffeeCoffee]

Please stop being so entitled. You don't have to have everything the game has to offer just because you pay a subscription each month ><
If the mirror is so hard to get, then yes go and get yourself a weathered weapon or progress your relic and move on with the game.
If they raise drop rates on rare stuff, then everything will be easy to get and everyone will have it. Then what is the challenge any more? It's no longer fun, you don't experience the exhilaration of winning something so rare when it does drop and you do roll highest. You will have everything and there's nothing left to play for.

For what it's worth, I lost roll on 4 Nightmares before I won a Gufflaxi with a 99. I didn't kick and scream over drop rates, seeing they drop at all was motivation to keep trying and it paid off.

[Kuwagami]

This is absolutely not how seeding a RNG works.

maybe the term itself (seeding) isn't the one used by programmers. Maybe I should have called them "pools" or something like that, but it would be 2 different types of pools in my explanation.

before going into semantics, I am not a programmer. The explanations I try to give are from a lot of discussions about RNG in F2P games I played, and should work for many other game relying on RNG

First, many games do not really rely on RNG but pseudo-RNG (PRNG) for a good majority of them. Nearly the same results, but not the same way of working.

They create a huge pool of numbers, and then take a sample of these in order to create the loot pool. That loot pool may be reset under some circumstances (here starting a new fight maybe ?).

Though, the loot pools do not take evenly values for every prize. Even if a sword has 10% of the values, the loot pool may only take 5% of "sword values", while taking 3% of "mount value" while said mount only has 1% of the initial values.

What I called "seed" is the pool of numbers taken from the initial pool
(after further searches, it's not what a seed is in programming. Well, ignore the word.).
Also, the numbers are totally made on the spot. A 1% item can't get a 20% drop chance in the loot pool. Even with PRNG it would be the once in a century occasion.




on an other hand, instead of blatantly saying "you're wrong", maybe next time you could develop ?




Oh and btw, it's not totally accurate, but here are the numbers about how many mounts there are in game :
http://xivsoul.com/

These numbers are clearly wrong.

It shows that the exact same amount of people have both the standard magitek armor and the glided magitek armor...
>_>

Also only 600 ish people with Bear mount?
no way.

you can see that the numbers aren't accurate with the "0 players" in the 3 last created servers (Jenova, Zodiark and Shinryu). (Also, it can't see mounts if the lodestone profile is locked)

also, you shouldn't overestimate the number of people who farmed the tank mounts... It's plainly stupid to farm for something like that >_> you'll get it over time

Still, it gives an idea

[aerolol]

These numbers are clearly wrong.

It shows that the exact same amount of people have both the standard magitek armor and the glided magitek armor...
>_>

Also only 600 ish people with Bear mount?
no way.

[Morningstar1337]

No, that's not right.

At a 1% drop rate, you'd have to beat it 69 times before you have a more than 50% chance of getting it. (that's 1-POW(1.0 - 1%, 69) = .5001)
After 100 times, your probability goes up to 63%.

Actualy you committed the Gambler's fallacy. Where you assume that after a set amont of chances, the die/slots/deck o int his case the game would "remember" your chances and give your a lucky shot.

The game may remember a lot of thing, but I don't think RNG lots are one of them.

[Cosmoswan]

if the chance to loot up each time ( or after 69 like you want ) i think it would be clearly said by SE in présentation and majority of us knew that ^^

[Starrywisdom]

Actualy you committed the Gambler's fallacy. Where you assume that after a set amont of chances, the die/slots/deck o int his case the game would "remember" your chances and give your a lucky shot.

The game may remember a lot of thing, but I don't think RNG lots are one of them.

Finally someone that understands math...jesus.

[Kuwagami]

Actualy you committed the Gambler's fallacy. Where you assume that after a set amont of chances, the die/slots/deck o int his case the game would "remember" your chances and give your a lucky shot.

The game may remember a lot of thing, but I don't think RNG lots are one of them.

No he is correct.

It's a "have it after a set number of times" vs "not having seen it after a set number of time"

Actually, with a 1% chance of drop, you have a 0.99 probability NOT to see it. This probability can be carried over a set amount of tries. I.E, after 2 fights, you have 0.99 and then 0.99 chance NOT to see the drop, so 0.99*0.99 chance NOT to see it. It's a "pick and give back" draw.

after 69 draws, you have 0.99^69 chances NOT to have ever seen the drop , here 0.4999. On the contrary, the possibility to have seen AT LEAST one drop is 0.5001 (1 - P(no drop) )




In the case where the computer would remember your draws, after 50 draws (assuming only 100 possibilities, actually the computer PRNGs uses so many values that it wouldn't matter in the slightest), your probability of seeing the drop would become... 2%. Not that much of an upgrade.

(However, your chances to see the drop at least once increase dramatically ^^ basically, doing 100 fights would give you one automatically, but getting it on first fight would doom you for the next 99 fights (as the computer would remember that you won once in the draw series) )

Finally someone that understands math...jesus.

actually they're wrong... they misread what the Roe said

[Edli]

Then what is the challenge any more?

Challenge? What does challenge have to do with luck?

A game is a strict set of rules designed to give you a challenge. You beat it by becoming better at it through the understanding of game's mechanisms. From newbie to mastery the progression in small steps is visible to you till you finally beat it. After you killed levi for 10 times or so it's fair to assume you're beaten the challenge the game gave you for that particular fight.

After that, trying to farm some ridiculous 1/800 drop you're not dealing with challenge anymore but with luck. An arbitrary number that doesn't take your skills into account, something you can't get better at no matter what. For me luck goes completely against what a game is. One rewards the one that masters the game and the other rewards in random.

[ToffeeCoffee]

Challenge? What does challenge have to do with luck?

A game is a strict set of rules designed to give you a challenge. You beat it by becoming better at it through the understanding of game's mechanisms. From newbie to mastery the progression in small steps is visible to you till you finally beat it. After you killed levi for 10 times or so it's fair to assume you're beaten the challenge the game gave you for that particular fight.

After that, trying to farm some ridiculous 1/800 drop you're not dealing with challenge anymore but with luck. An arbitrary number that doesn't take your skills into account, something you can't get better at no matter what. For me luck goes completely against what a game is. One rewards the one that masters the game and the other rewards in random.

You can always do better after you beat something for the first time, beating it a lot is what leads to mastery. Agreed, yes once you win the battle, the loot dropped is all down to RNG luck. The challenge is in farming it until the desired loot drops; and you roll high enough to win it.
Conversely, all other loot in this game is just handed out freely. In Aion, you were lucky if good loot dropped at all, let alone be something you needed. You could even roll items and trade them to your friends (within a time limit). Should SE bend to the whims of the entitled in this age where a certain % of people don't want to work hard for things? They probably will but I hope they have some rare items for players to pursue, skill based and luck based.

[Hayward]

You can always do better after you beat something for the first time, beating it a lot is what leads to mastery. Agreed, yes once you win the battle, the loot dropped is all down to RNG luck. The challenge is in farming it until the desired loot drops; and you roll high enough to win it.
Conversely, all other loot in this game is just handed out freely. In Aion, you were lucky if good loot dropped at all, let alone be something you needed. You could even roll items and trade them to your friends (within a time limit). Should SE bend to the whims of the entitled in this age where a certain % of people don't want to work hard for things? They probably will but I hope they have some rare items for players to pursue, skill based and luck based.

People with this mentality need to have a stadium full of seats. This obsession with exclusivity has killed many MMOs in the past and will continue to do so as long as developers keep listening to neckbeards who believe 90-99% of players should be frozen out of accessing the best weapons.