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  1. #21
    Player
    Poringing's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Posts
    68
    Character
    Yari Lanza
    World
    Masamune
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 50
    This is really the maths of probabilities in action.

    If it is really 1% drop rate: (I doubt it is; should be slightly higher as it was raised in patch 2.25 but still towards the low end)

    You need 69 runs to have a 50% chance of ever seeing a mirror (getting it is another story).

    If 100 people ran levi ex 100 times each, statistically 37 people would not have seen a mirror.

    If 100 people ran levi ex 450 times each, statistically 1 guy would not have seen a mirror (the world's unluckiest guy). Also, one person would have seen the mirror 10+ times, but there is a 25% chance he has no mirror... or 2 mirrors (assuming DF groups)!

    A static 8 man will need to run about 765 levi ex to have a 50% chance of getting everyone a mirror (or 1350 runs to raise it to 95% chance).

    Finally, for all things probability related, you need infinite runs to guarantee a mirror.
    (4)
    Last edited by Poringing; 07-01-2014 at 11:23 AM.