1% drop rates... a thought expriment.

[Tiggy]

I've beat Levi once and I've never been there again. With that drop rate the thought of farming it doesn't even cross my mind. Same with mounts. I'll go there only to experience the fight again or help a fc member.

After playing many mmos in the past you eventually understand that extremely long grinds are just not worth it.

It's still worth doing to get the i95 weapon. You'll likely get yours in around 10 runs. The fight does have rewards beyond the low drop rate of the mirror.

[Amnesia]

At a 1% drop rate, we won't see a mirror until we've beaten Levi EX 100 times on average.

No, the number is 69 times. See my earlier reply.

[Giantbane]

No, the number is 69 times. See my earlier reply.

right, whatever. I glossed over that. The ~0.6% chance to not see a mirror in 500 attempts (.99^500) was the important stat I was trying to convey.

[Grey_Cain]

No, that's not right.

At a 1% drop rate, you'd have to beat it 69 times before you have a more than 50% chance of getting it. (that's 1-POW(1.0 - 1%, 69) = .5001)
After 100 times, your probability goes up to 63%.

Well, then you have to divide the 63% probability by 8 for the number of people that are going to be lotting on it, so ~8%.

Now, I can speak from experience about an 8% chance. My fifth overmelded materia slots had that 8% chance, and it took usually between 12-15 failures before something stuck. My longest fail streak was 21. So if it's 8% after 100 runs, it means you can expect to finally get a mirror commonly after about 1200-1500 kills, or 2100 or more for the unlucky streaks.

[aerolol]

Yes I also have farmed Leviathan EX over 100 times and never saw a mirror.

This is absolutely disgusting.

I was also baffled when I saw the comment that "if you have all primal mounts something good will happen".
Seriously?

I have seen only one whistle, from Ifrit EX.
The Bard who was dead THE ENTIRE TIME got not only the whistle, but also the bracelet.
The other bard who was alive all the time of course was pissed.

This game is absolutely UNFAIR.

It's so unfair that it is disgusting.

The whole Whistle thing is even worse:
Someone can get a whistle, use it to get a mount, and the he may even Need it again if it drops !!!
Even if it has ABSOLUTELY NO USE for this person.

Given all the disgusting and unfair design, I'm quite sure a person on this situation would roll a 99.

[Kuwagami]

snip

RNG has absolutely no sense of fairness, it's RNG. It won't magically let everyone win in the end.

People calling a RNG system "unfair" have absolutely no idea about what RNG is.


And btw, for the math done (0.5 probability after 69 fights at 1%), it would only be true on a real random experience. Computer RNG doesn't work that way, but with seeds of numbers where they pull the lots.

Until the seed resets, you may have 90% chance of seeing wave bow, and then the next seed the mirror will have 20%. Overall, with the pool of numbers available to form the draw, the mirror may have 1% (or any other %, for that matters), but it may vary greatly from one seed to an other.

[IgnisFatuus]

is this bit about the bonus for all ponies true? i dont think ive ever seen a titan ex farm group on my server (at least none that didnt self-implode like most titan groups after two wipes).


anyway, farmed levi a lot. took about 50 kills just to drop the weapon for my main class and i had all his other weapons at that point. never seen a mirror, but the mount and rolled a 24 (lost, of course). only other mount drop ive ever seen was nightmare from garuda (won).

[Poringing]

This is really the maths of probabilities in action.

If it is really 1% drop rate: (I doubt it is; should be slightly higher as it was raised in patch 2.25 but still towards the low end)

You need 69 runs to have a 50% chance of ever seeing a mirror (getting it is another story).

If 100 people ran levi ex 100 times each, statistically 37 people would not have seen a mirror.

If 100 people ran levi ex 450 times each, statistically 1 guy would not have seen a mirror (the world's unluckiest guy). Also, one person would have seen the mirror 10+ times, but there is a 25% chance he has no mirror... or 2 mirrors (assuming DF groups)!

A static 8 man will need to run about 765 levi ex to have a 50% chance of getting everyone a mirror (or 1350 runs to raise it to 95% chance).

Finally, for all things probability related, you need infinite runs to guarantee a mirror.

[Welsper59]

is this bit about the bonus for all ponies true? i dont think ive ever seen a titan ex farm group on my server (at least none that didnt self-implode like most titan groups after two wipes).


anyway, farmed levi a lot. took about 50 kills just to drop the weapon for my main class and i had all his other weapons at that point. never seen a mirror, but the mount and rolled a 24 (lost, of course). only other mount drop ive ever seen was nightmare from garuda (won).

It's true, but as usual, idiots are showing their clear indication that... well, they're idiots. SE throws around the idea that there's going to be something new just for people that have some hard to achieve requirement, and people go absolutely bat**** crazy that they're not among this crowd. The bonus could be an immediate ban from the game (for as funny as that'd be), and these exact same people would complain that it's not fair that only certain people would get this bonus and not them.

Honestly though, the bonus is probably going to be something FC/housing related, like some kind of outdoors/indoors trophy to showcase the triumph. If you think about it, the bottomline intent behind things like the Odin/Behemoth/Primal trophies are that they represent an FC's triumph over the raid content. While you can buy most of these things off the market boards, it still doesn't change what they were intended to represent. This means, basically that the person who achieved this feat of acquiring all the raid mounts did so with the FC... makes sense that the bonus be some kind of showcase for everyone to enjoy.

[FelisC]

Until the seed resets, you may have 90% chance of seeing wave bow, and then the next seed the mirror will have 20%. Overall, with the pool of numbers available to form the draw, the mirror may have 1% (or any other %, for that matters), but it may vary greatly from one seed to an other.

This is absolutely not how seeding a RNG works.