1% drop rates... a thought expriment.

[Amnesia]

So, at 1% drop rate, we wouldn't expect to see a mirror until we'd beaten Levi EX 100 times.

No, that's not right.

At a 1% drop rate, you'd have to beat it 69 times before you have a more than 50% chance of getting it. (that's 1-POW(1.0 - 1%, 69) = .5001)
After 100 times, your probability goes up to 63%.

[Grey_Cain]

No, that's not right.

At a 1% drop rate, you'd have to beat it 69 times before you have a more than 50% chance of getting it. (that's 1-POW(1.0 - 1%, 69) = .5001)
After 100 times, your probability goes up to 63%.

Well, then you have to divide the 63% probability by 8 for the number of people that are going to be lotting on it, so ~8%.

Now, I can speak from experience about an 8% chance. My fifth overmelded materia slots had that 8% chance, and it took usually between 12-15 failures before something stuck. My longest fail streak was 21. So if it's 8% after 100 runs, it means you can expect to finally get a mirror commonly after about 1200-1500 kills, or 2100 or more for the unlucky streaks.

[Morningstar1337]

No, that's not right.

At a 1% drop rate, you'd have to beat it 69 times before you have a more than 50% chance of getting it. (that's 1-POW(1.0 - 1%, 69) = .5001)
After 100 times, your probability goes up to 63%.

Actualy you committed the Gambler's fallacy. Where you assume that after a set amont of chances, the die/slots/deck o int his case the game would "remember" your chances and give your a lucky shot.

The game may remember a lot of thing, but I don't think RNG lots are one of them.

[Starrywisdom]

Actualy you committed the Gambler's fallacy. Where you assume that after a set amont of chances, the die/slots/deck o int his case the game would "remember" your chances and give your a lucky shot.

The game may remember a lot of thing, but I don't think RNG lots are one of them.

Finally someone that understands math...jesus.

[Kuwagami]

Actualy you committed the Gambler's fallacy. Where you assume that after a set amont of chances, the die/slots/deck o int his case the game would "remember" your chances and give your a lucky shot.

The game may remember a lot of thing, but I don't think RNG lots are one of them.

No he is correct.

It's a "have it after a set number of times" vs "not having seen it after a set number of time"

Actually, with a 1% chance of drop, you have a 0.99 probability NOT to see it. This probability can be carried over a set amount of tries. I.E, after 2 fights, you have 0.99 and then 0.99 chance NOT to see the drop, so 0.99*0.99 chance NOT to see it. It's a "pick and give back" draw.

after 69 draws, you have 0.99^69 chances NOT to have ever seen the drop , here 0.4999. On the contrary, the possibility to have seen AT LEAST one drop is 0.5001 (1 - P(no drop) )




In the case where the computer would remember your draws, after 50 draws (assuming only 100 possibilities, actually the computer PRNGs uses so many values that it wouldn't matter in the slightest), your probability of seeing the drop would become... 2%. Not that much of an upgrade.

(However, your chances to see the drop at least once increase dramatically ^^ basically, doing 100 fights would give you one automatically, but getting it on first fight would doom you for the next 99 fights (as the computer would remember that you won once in the draw series) )

Finally someone that understands math...jesus.

actually they're wrong... they misread what the Roe said